Fiesta Bowl – LSU vs UCF
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s another chance for UCF to SHOCK THE WORLD as they take on SEC giant LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. The Knights haven’t lost a game in a longgggggggggggggg time and finished another regular season with an undefeated record. LSU finished up at 9-3 and only lost to Florida (close game), ROLL TIDE (duh) and Texas A&M in a gazillion overtime periods (that game might still be going on…). Can UCF slay another dragon? Does LSU have the horses to stay with the potent Knights?
Let’s dig in!
The Details
LSU -7.5 UCF (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 31.5 UCF 24
The Match-Up:
LSU offense vs UCF defense
Just grind, baby.
It’s an underrated attack. It’s not sexy but it gets the job done. How else do you win nine games playing in the SEC and kick the %$#^%#%^ out of Georgia? QB Joe Burrow is just fine by us. He doesn’t put up monster stats but is a good leader and can throw the ball when needed (comeback win vs Auburn, etc..). Burrow did not throw for a ton of yards but had a fine 12-4 TD to INT ratio. That’s just four INT in 345 attempts. He also added seven rushing TDs and showed an ability to run the ball effectively in the MEGALOCKS 89,009 STAR BUNKER BUSTER LOCK WINNER vs Texas A&M at the end of the regular season. The run game is tough to stop with the mobility of Burrow and the 1-2 combo of Nick Brossette and the Fresh Prince of HELAIRE that rushed for almost 1,600 combined yards and 21 (!) rushing TDs. The bad news? They may have trouble MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game as they only have one player with more than 300 (!) yards receiving in WR Justin Jefferson (788, 15.8, 4 TD). UCF? Our primary concern is their ability and lack of interest in stopping the run (#117 FBS) (!) (227 YPG). In the last five games of the season the Knights allowed 226, 374, 252, 196 and 401 yards on the ground. LSU should be able to control the game on offense and keep the UCF offense off the field.
UCF offense vs LSU defense
The Knights roll into this game without the services of one of the best players in college football in QB McKenzie Milton. Is that a big deal? Well, our FIESTA BOWL INSIDERS think that it is, but apparently the markets disagree. Back-up QB Darriel Mack had a bad game vs USF but came back with a great performance vs Memphis (2 TD passing, 4 rushing). Keep in mind, that was MEMPHIS. Mack is making his third start vs LSU (E Carolina, USF) . Can he have a great game? Sure, it’s possible. UCF had 41 TD rushing and 28 TD passing and dismantled almost everything in their path. The bad news? The Tigers are ranked #29 in the FBS in total defense and #9 in passing efficiency D. The trickiest part about handicapping this game is the fact that we have lost count of how many LSU players have declared for the NFL draft (won’t be playing….see ya) and/or are suspended for the first half of this contest. With over a month to prepare and a bucket full of great athletes on hand we think that LSU will manage.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
These two teams have combined for a +26 (!!) turnover ratio…..UCF +14……LSU +12…..LSU has never played in the Fiesta Bowl.
Summary
Let’s cut the crap. Almost everyone on the planet is sick of UCF claiming that they are the best team of all time and National Champs because they beat Memphis four times in two years. We think that LSU will put forth their best effort in the Fiesta Bowl. Do they want to hear FOREVER about how they lost to UCF and disgraced the SEC? We think they will want Auburn to wear that SCARLET LETTER.
We have a strong lean to LSU but will wait to see if this bad boy drops to -7 after more LSU players say they are leaving to become 17th round NFL picks. Feel free to drop us a note when that happens. Thanks!
Conclusion
Official play: LSU -7 -112
Total: Slight lean to the over.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.