First Responder Bowl – Boise St vs Boston College
The Game
It’s one of the more underrated match-ups of the bowl season as Boise St battles Boston College at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Boxing Day. Boise St has already bagged another (yawn) 10-win season and came within an OT of winning the Mountain West Championship. Boston College got off to a fine 7-2 start but then went into a FUNK and lost their final three contests. Can the Eagles turn it around?
The Details
Boise St -2 Boston College (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise St 29 Boston College 27
The Match-Up:
Boston College offense vs Boise St defense
The time off should do wonders for star RB AJ Dillon who battled injuries for a good chunk of the season. Having said that, he still rumbled for 1,108 yards and 10 TDs whilst bagging five 100-yard games. Dillon is a true workhorse but we do worry that he has not averaged 5 YPC in a game since September (vs Temple). The depth at RB is unproven and Dillon is the only player on the team with more than 200Y rushing. Boise St is excellent vs the run (#23 FBS) and are going to make the Eagles work for everything they get on the ground. The Broncos allow just 123 rushing YPG and just 3.65 YPC. QB Anthony Brown has been decent enough but has only completed 55.4% of his passes and thrown 9 INTs (20 TDs) The WR group is underrated as their top-two guys (Kobay White, Jeff Smith) have solid YPC numbers (15.9, 19.4). TE Tommy Sweeney is #2 on the team in receptions (32) and will be a really important weapon on 3rd down attempts. Statistically speaking, Boise St has not been great vs the pass BUT they are still a tough team to score upon. They also get fine PENETRATION and lead the Mountain West in sacks (39)(!). The big match-up in this game will be the excellent third down D of Boise St (#9 FBS) and an Boston College offense that struggles in that regard (#114 FBS).
Boise St offense vs Boston College defense
QB Brett Rypien has one more game with the Broncos and will go down as one of the best signal callers in program history. Rypien has been excellent this season (3,705 30-7 TD to INT) and Boise is #11 in the FBS in passing efficiency. The Eagles are tied for 3rd (!) in the FBS as we go to press in INTs (18) but will be hard pressed to bait Rypien into mistakes. The good news is that Boston College has bagged 33 sacks and the Broncos are relatively susceptible to PENETRATION (32 sacks allowed in 13 games). The Broncos have a deep WR group (even with a few guys due to miss this game) and Sean Modster and AJ Richardson are both closing in on 1,000-yard seasons (978, 825). The straw that stirs the drink is workhorse RB (sound familiar?) Alexander Mattison who has carried the ball over 300 times and amassed over 1,400 yards on the ground (17 TDs). As good as QB Rypien can be, the #1 priority for the Eagles has to be holding Mattison in check. They are #6 in the ACC in run defense (155 YPG, 3.7 YPC) and did a decent job for most of the season. Only three teams managed to rush for over 200 yards on the Eagles and all of those teams (Wake, NC St, Orange) needed 50+ carries to get there.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Our DALLAS WEATHER INSIDERS have given us a heads-up that rain is likely to be present for at least part of this game….It’s debatable what impact that will have relative to each team’s offensive performance BUT it’s interesting to note that Boise St leads the FBS in fumble recoveries with 17……Broncos’ HC Bryan Harsin is 3-1 in bowl games….HC Steve Addazio is 1-3 in Boston College postseason battles.
Summary
This has the makings of a one-score game. The teams are evenly matched and motivation should be high on both sides of the ball. We like the fact that AJ Dillon had time to get healthy. We are not as crazy about the Eagles’ recent run in bowl games (1-6 L7). When push comes to shove it seems like the prudent choice is to favor the team sporting the star QB AND the squad that seems show up 99% of the time.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Boise St.
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.