College Football Predictions – FIU Panthers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 10-3
The Panthers rolled to their second consecutive winning season which was the first time they had done that since 2011. Butch Davis has got things going and has a record of 17-9 in his first two seasons with the Panthers. They’ve got BOMBED by Florida Atlantic in each of the last two meetings and that’s the only bone to pick at this point.
Florida International comes into the season with some momentum after beating Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. Are they good enough to contend for all the Conference USA marbles? Let’s find out.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Conference USA – #1
FIU Panthers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Panthers were COOKING on offense last year and increased their scoring average by nine points-per-game (34.6 PPG, T1 C-USA). QB James Morgan is coming off a fine season (2,727, 65%, 26-7 TD to INT) and will be one of the best QBs in the conference this year. They look good in the WR and TE department even with the departure of last year’s #1 WR CJ Worton. The Panthers are deep at WR and don’t sleep on emerging star TE Sterling Palmer. THE HITS KEEP COMING at RB when you consider the top-four men from last year’s squad are back and they combined for close to 2,000 yards and 22 (!) TDs on the ground in 2018. The offensive line did a masterful job last year paving the way for 4.8 YPC (#2 C-USA) and yielded the fewest sacks (8) of ANY team in the FBS that isn’t classified as a service academy. Yup, that’s a TASTY trivia nugget right there. Three starters are back up front and we expect another good season.
We love what we see on paper and this is one of the top offenses in Conference USA.
DEFENSE
It’s been a while since the Panthers have been able to slow down opponents’ rushing attacks. Last year they allowed 192 YPG (#12 C-USA) (!) and that won’t cut it this year if they plan on making a serious run at the division crown. Eight starters are back and things look good at every level of the defense. The DL returns three starters and should be able to hold up much better vs the run. The LB group is anchored by last year’s leading tackler and 1st Team C-USA honoree Sage Lewis and the secondary is one of the best in the conference. There is a lot of experience in the group and don’t forget they had a fine 19-17 TD to INT ratio a season ago.
FIU allowed a respectable 25.2 PPG LY (#6 C-USA) and we expect more good things out of the stop unit. Hopefully they can transition smoothly after the departure of former DC Brent Guy.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They’re in good shape. PK Jose Borregales was 14/18 on FG attempts a season ago and was able to dial it up from DOWNTOWN (5/6 from 40+ yards). They need to find a new punter and 2nd Team C-USA honoree Stone Wilson won’t be easy to replace. Maurice Alexander is a dangerous PR and had a fine 2018 campaign (14.6, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks favorable. The majority of the non-conference docket is very manageable outside of the date with Miami in late November at Marlins Park. Their overall fortunes will be tightly coupled with the final pair of C-USA games (at Florida Atlantic, at Marshall). The Panthers home finale is on November 2nd (!).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 +100
Under 7.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘over’. They should be able to get on a roll before the tough part of the schedule gets underway at the end of October.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Panthers have won one conference title and that came in 2010 when they were champs of the Sun Belt. The head coach? Your pal Mario Cristobal who now leads the Oregon Ducks.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This team is capable of doing big things. They look really good on both sides of the football and you know that Butch Davis can COACH EM UP. The primary concern with picking them to win the division is the fact that they face Marshall, FAU, and MTSU all on the road. Our philosophy is to not overreact to home/road schedules, but it’s something to keep in mind.
The Panthers have rewarded DEGENERATE NATION with a fine 16-10 ATS run in the first two years of the Butch Davis era. It’s gonna be hard to sneak up on people this year, and keep in mind that the Panthers are just 2-6 ATS as home chalk the past two seasons. That’s a role they will enjoy a lot this year.
Paws Up!
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