Florida at Tennessee – College Football Predictions
Posted September 21, 2022
The Game
It’s time for some serious SEC East action as the Florida Gators travel to Knoxville to battle the Volunteers. Tennessee is off to a 3-0 start and have already booked a road win over the defending ACC champs from Pittsburgh. Florida hasn’t looked great after their dramatic week one win over Utah and would love to register another win over their hated ORANGE rival.
Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Tennessee -10.5 Florida (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -9.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Tennessee -10.0
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 36.5 Florida 26
The Match-Up:
Tennessee offense vs Florida defense
Star QB Hendon Hooker has looked sharp (69%, 6-0 TD to INT, 2 rush TD) and the offense has plenty of weapons to utilize at RB and WR. They went up and down the field on TOMATO CANS Akron and Ball St but had a bit of trouble at times in their road win over Pitt. Florida is certainly more in the Panthers’ area code so it’ll be interesting to see how much resistance the Gators can put up in this one. Florida was torn apart on the ground by Utah and S Florida (286Y) (!) but the pass defense has been decent considering the schedule (#27 FBS pass efficiency D, 2-4 TD to INT). Can they force Hooker into a mistake or two? It’s doubtful they’ll be able to get consistent pressure as they’ve only booked 3 sacks in 3G.
Florida offense vs Tennessee defense
It won’t be easy, but there is a path for Florida to keep this game competitive. Last year the Gators gouged the Vols for 283 yards on the ground and QB Emory Jones had 144 (!) of those yards. Hmm. If only Florida had a devastating rushing QB and fine set of RBs? Oh, wait! They do! Tennessee may be better up front on D this year but there’s no way of knowing for sure given the overall schedule they’ve played. QB A Richardson has ZERO TD passes and the THROW GAME options are limited, so as gross as it may sound to Florida fans, if you wanna win this BAD BOY you’re gonna need to grind it out and limit Tennessee’s possessions. And even that’s no guarantee.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Florida has taken down Tennessee in 16 of the last 17 meetings….We haven’t seen domination like that since the final scene of GOOD WILL HUMPING….Weather looks great as we get close to game day…..The Gators have disappointed punters over the L2G going 0-2 ATS (-37 vs point spread).
Summary
You know we’re high on Tennessee this season but we were hoping for a number closer to -7. That went out the window once South Florida gave the Gators all they could handle last Saturday. If the Vols can’t jump out quick and erase Florida’s WILL TO LIVE, the Gators could get into Tennessee’s collective heads given the series history over the last decade and change. We’ll call for a 6-10 point Tennessee win.
Conclusion
Lean – Florida +10.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.