College Football Predictions – Florida Atlantic Owls 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record –5-7
ATS – 3-8-1
Well, that was a downer.
Florida Atlantic followed up an awesome eleven-win campaign that included a Conference USA Championship with a five-win stink bomb. They got POLEAXED in the season opener at Oklahoma (L 63-14) and just couldn’t beat any of the decent teams on their schedule. Of course, the lone exception being the 49-14 beatdown of FIU in the Shula Bowl. They still had a chance to slither into bowl season but were upset by Charlotte (!) at home in the season finale.
Let’s see if the Owls have what it takes to rebound this year.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – TBD
Conference USA – TBD
Florida Atlantic Owls 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Owls took a NOSEDIVE on offense last season dropping almost 10 PPG in scoring average (31.1 PPG) compared to the LETHAL 2017 unit (40.6 PPG). The QB play just wasn’t good enough, and even though Chris Robison was decent (2,540, 63%), he threw too many picks (12). In fact, Owls quarterbacks threw more INTs than TDs in 2018 (14-15 TD to INT). Our CONFERENCE USA QB INSIDERS advised us that Robison will be back for his sophomore campaign after being reinstated for football activities (suspension). Robison will battle fellow sophomore Nick Tronti for the starting gig and we’ll see how things go during fall camp. It was thought for a while that former Florida St QB Deondre Francois would transfer to the Owls but that will not be the case. Francois is almost certain to play his next football at the FCS level.
We have a feeling that the QB situation will sort itself out BUT how will the Owls replace their all-time leading rusher and one of the best RBs in college football? Devin Singletary had a phenomenal 2018 campaign rushing for over 1,300 yards and 22 (!) TDs and is now off to the NFL (Bills). The leading candidate for the #1 gig is Alabama transfer BJ Emmons and there are a few other interesting options on the depth chart. Once again, we trust that Lane Kiffin will get things working but it’s not realistic to expect another Devin Singletary to emerge. The WR is stocked with talent even with the loss of last year’s #1 wideout Jovon Durante and don’t forget they boast one of the most dangerous receiving TEs in the country in Harrison Bryant (45-662, 14.7, 4 TD).
The Owls should be able to increase their offensive output if they offensive line can perform at the same level we are used to seeing in Boca Raton. They return three starters and the outlook is promising.
DEFENSE
New DC Glenn Spencer comes over from Charlotte where he did a REALLY fine job a season ago (#22 FBS total defense). The tough work begins with a defensive line that was a disappointment in 2018. They were too soft vs the run LY (186 YPG, #11 C-USA) and lose their top sack producer. The depth at LB is a bit of question mark but they do return #1 tackler Rashad Smith (86). The secondary failed to meet expectations last year and, in fact, their play was fairly mediocre. They allowed 64% completions and a poor 22-11 TD to INT ratio (#10 pass efficiency defense in C-USA). Part of their struggles can be attributed to the decreased level of PENETRATION (24 sacks LY, 38 in 2017) but they may have the same problem in 2019.
The Owls were #11 in total defense in C-USA LY (424 YPG) and #11 in scoring defense (31.8 PPG). We can see them making a move into the “average” category but it’s hard to project significant improvement.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It was an average group last year and things look the same heading into 2019. Punter Sebastian Riella booked an acceptable 35.5 yard net in 2018 but PK Vladimir Rivas was just 10/17 on FG attempts (1/4 from 40+ yards). Kerrith Whyte will be missed on KRs as he averaged 28.7 (!) yards a pop on 19 attempts LY (TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Good news! No Oklahoma in week one. Bad news! They play at Ohio St. Well, we give them credit for scheduling these games, because if you wanna anoint yourselves as a mythical national champion like a certain other Florida-based school, you better have someone tougher than Memphis on your docket. Speaking of which, they get UCF in week two. Yikes. BACK TO OUR REGULAR PROGRAMMING…….The C-USA schedule sets up nicely as they get all three of their prime divisional rivals at home (MTSU, Marshall, FIU).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at WKU (November 2)
The Hilltoppers might be a sneaky-tough out this year and this game takes place right before the big SHULA BOWL match-up with rival FIU.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘under’. It’s hard to see them starting anything other than 0-2 and they’ll be vulnerable in conference play. Would like to see an “8” before going that route.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Owls won the Conference USA Championship in 2017, ten years after they took down the Sun Belt under legendary coach and program-builder Howard Schnellenberger.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
The Owls were a disappointing team across the board last year. Offense, defense, and special teams. Things look promising this season when you look at the talent on the roster and also recognize that they lost three games by a combined seven points a season ago (MTSU, Charlotte, North Texas). The offense will be fine, but we worry about the defense being able to make enough stops in their biggest games.
Lane Kiffin has booked a 13-11-2 mark vs the point spread with Florida Atlantic. The division is pretty competitive and it’s going to be hard finding betting value with a high-scoring team led by a high-profile head coach. Pick your spots when crafting your betting cards throughout the season.
HOOT HOOT!
Want more Florida Atlantic Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.fausports.com/sports/m-footbl/fau-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
http://www.fauowlsnest.com/forum/forumview/misc/fau-football.htm
NEWS
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-owls/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2226/florida-atlantic-owls
http://bleacherreport.com/florida-atlantic-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/florida-atlantic-owls
TWITTER
Hashtag – #WinningInParadise
Accounts to follow