Florida Atlantic Owls 2023 College Football Preview
June 26, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 6-6
“It would kill some men to get so close to their dream and not touch it.” <Ray Kinsella> <Field of Dreams>
The Owls were determined to get to a bowl game last year after falling short in 2021 (5-7). They started out 2-4 but kept battling to even their mark at 5-5. Just one more win. What could possibly go wrong? Well, they got blown out by MTSU and then lost a nail-biter in the season finale. Western Kentucky went for two points in the first OT and converted to win by a score of 32-31. Another 5-7 season. Game over. No bowl game. Start the cars. Drive safe!
Florida Atlantic Owls 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense did some fine work on the ground LY (#3 CUSA, 184 YPG) thanks to the efforts of RB Larry McCammon III (1,004, 5.2, 7 TD) and Zuberi Mobley (534, 5.3, 3 TD) and both of those doods are back for battle this year. QB N’Kosi Perry had an excellent TD to INT ratio LY (25-5) but didn’t make enough big plays or play consistent football in the red zone (#100 FBS red zone offense). Transfer QB Casey Thompson will likely get the first crack at the starting QB gig (47-19 career TD to INT; CORN, Texas) but Central Michigan transfer Daniel Richardson could also get the call (39-11 TD to INT L2Y). Whomever leads the offense gets to work with three of the top-four WRs from LY’s squad and the Owls added a pair of TEs thru the transfer portal including Khalil Brantley from YOUR Miami Hurricanes. They bring back three starters and feature well over 100 career starts up front. This looks like one of the better offenses in the AAC.
DEFENSE
The Owls finished mid-pack in Conference USA last year in both run defense (#6) and pass efficiency defense (#6). They were good on 3rd downs (#2) but were poor when it came to getting to the QB (18 sacks, #9). We’ve got exciting news to report as the Owls bring back 10 starters on this side of the football including their top-four tacklers, and if that wasn’t enough, they added several talented players thru the portal. They’ll be fine up front, particularly with a healthy Evan Anderson at NG (6-3, 356), and we expect good things from a secondary that retains everyone of consequence including a talented safety combo (Toombs, Adams). Also recall that CB Romain Mungin booked 8 PBU and 2 INT LY. This looks like an average AAC defense with the potential to surprise to the upside if they can create more havoc.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Morgan Suarez hit 9/13 FGA LY (38-38 XP) and will be back to handle the PK duties. It hurts to lose punter Riley Thompson (41.1 net LY; Owls #21 FBS net punting). PR LaJohntay Wester did well LY (9.7) but the Owls need more spice at KR (#125 FBS).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It doesn’t look that bad at all. They’ve got to battle Clemson (!) and Illinois on the road but they’ve got a great shot to start 2-0. The Owls’ conference schedule is one of the lightest in the AAC as they miss Memphis and SMU whilst getting the benefit of playing Tulane and UTSA at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at South Florida (Oct 14)
This will be their 3rd road game in four (bye week in there) and the Owls are just 9-15-1 ATS L25 as road favorites. The Bulls will be JACKED for a conference home game vs an in-state rival.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 26
Over 7.5 +110
Under 7.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
This definitely looks like an “8-win” team on paper BUT assuming they lose on the road to Illinois and Clemson (likely) they’ll need to go 8-2 or better in the other 10 games in order to cash that ticket. We’d be really pumped to see a flat ‘7’ with extra juice but our SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB INTERNET BOT FARM hasn’t come across one yet.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
FAU’s Harbor Branch, now known as the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, was responsible for finding Space Shuttle Challenger’s rocket booster on the ocean floor. From there, experts determined that the explosion was caused by a faulty O-ring. **
** get cho knowledge bombs, yo
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Yes, guy.
We love the hire of HC Tom Herman who did a BANG UP job at Houston (22-4) and decent work with the Texas Longhorns before being tossed to the curb (32-18). The offense shouldn’t have any problem moving the ball on most teams and they’ll be dangerous if the defense makes significant improvement. Moving from Conference USA to the revamped AAC is a small rise in class but the schedule-makers were kind to the Owls. Legitimate SURPRISE PACKAGE. Go Owls!