Florida Atlantic Owls 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 25, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-6-1
We expected a lot more out of the Owls last year and thought they were going bowling in year one of the Tom Herman experience. Florida Atlantic was still hanging around at 4-4 heading into the final portion of the season but they dropped their final four games whilst scoring a mere 7/8/21 points in their final three contests. Fun fact: Five of the Owls’ eight losses came vs bowl teams. Is that a HARBINGER of better things to come in 2024?
Florida Atlantic Owls 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
Yuck. That’s all you can really say.
The Owls had trouble running the football LY (#108) and they complemented that nicely with inefficient QB play (#92 passing efficiency). This was a surprise to us given the offensive chops of Tom Herman and the perceived talent on the roster going into the season, but hey, that’s how it goes sometimes. The roster has undergone major reconstructive surgery and it starts at QB with the transfer of Cam Fancher from Marshall. We’ve never been a yuuuge fan of Fancher (career 21-17 TD to INT) and have a sneaky suspicion that we’ll see more of the TURNOVER FIASCO that we saw in 2023 when the FAU QBs combined for a hideous 19-15 TD to INT mark. The Owls lose a solid 1-2 combo at RB (McCaommon/Lewis) who combined for well over 1,000 yards and 8 rushing TDs LY but they hope that Zuberi Mobley can stay healthy (534, 3 TD in 2022) and that other specimens emerge from the depth chart. The top-three WRs are gone including star wideout LaJohntay Wester who was phenomenal LY (108, 1168, 10.8, 8 TD) and we don’t see a ton of promise on the depth chart as we approach press time. The good news is that there are over a half dozen transfers (WR/TE) looking to take a roster spot so maybe if you throw enough LASAGNA at the wall, some of it will stick? The offensive line could be a problem as they only return one starter and don’t have many proven performers.
DEFENSE
The Owls’ problem LY certainly wasn’t on this side of the football as they allowed a respectable 25.5 PPG (#58) and they were constantly put in bad positions by SIMPLE JACK quarterback play. Eight starters return on defense but they lose four of their top-six tacklers from the 2023 stop unit. The Owls added some talented transfers thru the portal but they’ll definitely miss NT Evan Anderson who did an excellent job in the middle. The LB unit is one of the best in the entire conference as it’s loaded with returning production and they add a pair of talented projected starters on the back end to complement the experienced holdovers. We’re especially intrigued by CB Kahzir Brown (Maine) and SS Phillip Dunham (Indiana). This stop unit is in the top-half of the AAC and they could be really good if they find a way to get more pressure on the QB (28 sacks, #60 FBS LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
Here’s yet another retooling project to talk about as all of the key pieces depart other than punter Logan Lupo. They’ll definitely miss the devastating LaJohntay Wester on punt returns (19.9, TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yes, guy.
The Owls are looking at as many as three non-conference wins and they miss Memphis and Tulane in AAC play. They also face something called Wagner and finish with three DUMPSTER FIRES (Temple, Charlotte, Tulsa).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Tulsa (Nov 30)
This will be the Owls’ 3rd road game in four weeks to end the season and it’s a tricky scheduling spot in either of two scenarios. Number one…..Season is over but let’s give it 100% at Tulsa! ** Number two…We need this for a bowl invite. We can’t lose! ##
** Fact check: Not possible.
## Fact check: Cool story, bro.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 25
Over 6.5 -115
Under 6.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
The schedule is a joke but getting to seven wins won’t be easy with this roster.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Owls have booked three losing seasons in a row and haven’t done anything of value since our boy Lane Kiffin left town. Kiffin led the team to a pair (!) of 11-win seasons in two years.
Experts ** confirm that nobody has ever seen a woman in Boca Raton because they are so hot they spontaneously combust before anyone can take a peek.
** Fact check: True.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We’re big fans of Tom Herman but things didn’t go well last season. Can they get better in 2024? Well, you have to wonder about the offense, and it’s doubtful that they did anything to improve the QB position. On a positive note, the defense looks solid and the schedule gives them a great shot to get to a bowl game. We’ll call for six wins and hope that they show some GREEN SHOOTS of growth heading into 2025. HOOT HOOT!