Florida Gators 2016 NCAA Football Preview
FLORIDA GATORS
Southeastern Conference – East Division
2015 Record – 10-4
ATS – 8-5-1
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
East Division #2
Conference #5
2015 Recap
The Gators rebounded from a 7-5 season in 2014 to win 10 games in their first year under HC Jim McElwain. They started out 10-1 but lost their last three – all against tough competition – Florida St, Alabama and Michigan. The offense struggled. The defense excelled. There was just not enough offensive punch to make noise against tough competition – especially after QB Grier was lost to suspension after six games. The Gators went 6-1 at home in 2015 (relatively easy schedule) after a combined 6-6 the previous two seasons.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Last season marked the 6th straight season where the offense managed less than 370 yards per game (334). Their SEC rankings were pretty dismal – 12th in total offense, 13th in rushing, last in sacks allowed per game. Yeesh. Losing QB Grier mid-season really hurt and the OL struggled mightily all season. This year the OL is much more experienced – and while they lost Kelvin Taylor early to the NFL – it appears as though they have some talent at RB including JC transfer Mark Thompson. The WR core should be fine especially with electric Antonio Callaway back for his sophomore season.
The huge question mark is at QB. Treon Harris was moved to WR – and the competition will be between a couple of transfers and two true frosh. Luke Del Rio looked good in the spring game hitting 10/11 for 176 yards and a TD vs the 2nd stringers while Appleby looked fine vs the starters. True frosh Franks threw 3 interceptions but tossed a late TD. We give the early edge to Del Rio but will keep an eye on this situation. The prospects of repeating as SEC East champs are pretty slim without improved QB play.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – WR/PR Antonio Callaway led the Gators in receiving yards last season as a true frosh while averaging over 19 yards per catch. Callaway was also a 3rd Team AA punt returner – over 15 yards a return and 2 TDs. We expect a big season particularly if they can find a QB that can MATRICULATE effectively down the field.
DEFENSE
The Gators allowed only 18.3 points per game last season which was their best showing since 2012 (14.5). They were 8th in the NCAA in total defense and ranked 2nd in the SEC in sacks per game. This season they lose their top 2 sack leaders from 2015 – not to mention their leading tackler and two #1 NFL draft picks from the secondary. Florida appears to be a bit thin at LB but the pass defense should be the usual rock. Good news – they do not face many dynamic offenses this season and should be able to hold opponents to less than 20 points per game. It will be interesting to see if some new stars emerge in the front 7 because that is what they will need to make another run at the SEC East Title.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It was a complete fiasco trying to kick FG last year. Apparently there is a new sheriff in town – Eddy Pineiro – and whoa – he may need to register that that leg as a lethal weapon. Forget the YouTube videos. True, he was hitting bombs from over 70 yards and it was neat to watch – but he was very impressive in the spring game hitting FG from 56, 52 and 46 yards. MEGALOCKS STEALTH INSIDERS let us know that the crowd was chanting “Eddy” (Rudy?) as he was lining up for FGs late in the game. It appears their worries at PK may be over. They are in great shape at P (3rd net punting NCAA last year) and in the return game. The Gators should be very good on special teams in 2016.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Florida may fly a bit under the radar early in 2016 given that they finished the season with three straight losses. There is also uncertainty at the QB position. The Gators have an opportunity to start the season strong with three soft opponents at home, and overall, the schedule is not very difficult. McElwain enters his second season here and all he did was help the Gators cover more games ATS (8) than in any year since the Tebow era.
Overall, we give the GATORS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season. It is hard to go higher than that given they will be big favorites early on and may attract too much betting attention if those games go true to form (Woodshed treatment).
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