Florida Gators 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Florida Gators 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 4-7

ATS – 3-8

Well, that was ugly.

Florida coughed their way to a 4-7 record and said goodbye to HC Jim McElwain during the season. They were TORPEDOED by suspension and injuries and the lack of depth was too much to overcome. They only won one of their final seven games (UAB) (!) and rock bottom had to be the beating at the hands of Georgia (42-7). New HC Dan Mullen comes over from Mississippi St to try and right the ship. Is it too much to expect big time improvement in 2018? Let’s find out.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #3

SEC – Tied #6

Florida Gators 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

Florida got sketchy QB play last season but, to be honest, they never really got settled. New HC Dan Mullen has some talent to work with and will be able to get more production out of the unit. Feleipe Franks was pretty average in his first season (9-8 TD to INT ratio) but the offense was splattered with injured and suspended players. This year he will be dealing with a full deck that starts with an offensive line returning all five starters. The RB unit is deep and returns the top-2 (Lamical Perine, Jordan Scarlett) that combined for over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs last season. We think the ground attack will be much improved (#75 FBS LY) in 2018. Leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland is back and the Gators add a pair of talented transfers from Ohio St and Ole Miss to the mix.

Florida has scored less than 24 points per game in THREE (!) straight seasons but we project a big improvement this year.

DEFENSE

Last year the Gators allowed the most points and yards in a LONG LONG time. Suspensions and injuries were an absolute killer, but this season Florida returns 9 (!) starters and should be back to their stingy, nasty selves. Excellent DC Todd Grantham comes over with HC Mullen from Mississippi St and has a lot of tools in the toolbox. The DL has good size. The LB unit is loaded with experience and features 2nd Team SEC honoree David Reese (102 tackles, 10 TFL LY). Fellow LB Cece Jefferson was also disruptive in 2017 bagging 13.5 TFL. The secondary should live up to Gators’ standards with 3/4 returning starters. Even last season with all the personnel issues, they still had a decent 16-14 TD to INT ratio.

Florida went from 16.8 PPG allowed in 2016 to 27.3 (!) last year. And they only registered 23 sacks. We project a much improved performance in terms of PPG allowed, yards allowed, and PENETRATION.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This could be a trouble area. The Gators must replace their excellent PK AND P combination in 2018. They bring in some talented and highly-regarded players to take over, but it’s always an unknown when reloading the kicking game. It could turn into a team strength but it’s hard to say right now.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It looks favorable to us. They miss ROLL TIDE and Auburn and only have one (!) true road game after October 13th, and that bad boy comes on November 24th when they take on Florida St. There are also a couple of free squares (Charleston Southern, Idaho).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Vanderbilt (October 13th). This game is their 3rd road test in four weeks and it comes after games with Tennessee, Mississippi St, and LSU.

Season Win Total

Over 8 +110

Under 8 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Strong lean to the over. It’s hard to pass up +110 given the risk/reward dynamic at play. It seems truly unlikely that the Gators lose five games and 9+ is well within their reach.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Florida has beat Kentucky 31 consecutive times. That is the longest active streak in the FBS.

The Gators’ bowl history includes playing in some gems like the Bacardi Bowl, Tangerine Bowl, and Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the GATORS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.

We expect good things from Florida this year. There is uncertainty at QB and in the special teams unit, but this squad is loaded with raw talent and has a lot of experience. The coaching upgrade is yuuuuuge and you know they have to be hungry after last season’s DEBACLE. Georgia is an absolute monster, but there is no doubt the match-up on October 27th will be must-see-TV.

If they start hot the value may dissipate a bit, but they should still have a winning ATS mark in 2018. CHOMP CHOMP.

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