Florida Gators 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 20, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
“Here we go again. Again.”
<Tugg Speedman, Scorcher VI: Global Meltdown>
The Gators followed up a pair of losing seasons with, wait for it, another losing season. Things actually looked pretty good heading into the WORLD’S LARGEST OUTDOOR COCKTAIL PARTY ** as the Gators were sitting at 5-2 and hoping to upset the mighty Georgia Bulldogs. Unfortunately, the Gators were spanked by their rivals (L 43-20) and the defeat sent their season GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain. Five consecutive losses to end the year, and home for the holidays with a record of 5-7.
** Karen and her posse of annoying freaks won’t allow the media to call the Florida/Georgia game by it’s rightful moniker but we have no such limitations. Ya, BAY-BEE.
Florida Gators 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
Who was that masked man? Yes indeed, it was Graham Mertz who gave the Gators shockingly efficient QB play LY (73%, 20-3 TD to INT). Mertz will be without his best weapon in WR Ricky Pearsall who was snagged in the first round of the NFL Draft but the Gators added a few interesting specimens thru the portal in Arizona St WR Elijah Badger (135, 1,579 yards,10 TD L2Y) and Wisconsin WR Chimere Dike. Note that Florida still has LY’s #2 WR Eugene Wilson and promising TE Arlis Boardingham ready to roll so we expect a much improved downfield THROW GAME in 2024 (8.0 YPA, #8 SEC LY). Leading rusher Montrell Johnson is back at RB (817, 5 TD) but the departed Trevor Etienne leaves big shoes to fill. The depth behind Johnson is unproven but we’ll see how things go. The offensive line was awful LY (4.3 YPC, 39 sacks allowed) but three starters return along with a few talented transfer portal pieces so a bit of improvement should be expected. It’ll be tough to show meaningful improvement in the major statistical categories given the schedule that lies ahead of them. More on that below.
DEFENSE
The defense has been a big disappointment over the last four seasons as they’ve allowed between 27 and 31 PPG on each occasion. They’ve also had a difficult time getting to the QB over the L2Y (22, 23 sacks) and that’ll have to change if the Gators wanna make legitimate improvement on this side of the football. The DL is very experienced and they’ve got a handful of absolute monsters including Desmond “Tiny” Watson (6-5, 439!). We’re not convinced about the pass rush ability on the outside and that could be big problem once again for the defense. It’s good to have LB Shemar James back in the mix (#2 tackles) but we’re not crazy about the depth in the middle layer of the stop unit. Jordan Castell and Asa Turner (Washington) provide a solid safety combo but the CBs don’t FLASH like you would hope for when talking about a Florida secondary (SEC, 2nd last pass efficiency D, 18-3 TD to INT LY). We’re not as high as market with respect to the defense but there’s plenty of upside potential given the raw talent on hand. <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Gators have one of the best kicking duos in the SEC in punter Jeremy Crawshaw (42.8 net) and PK Trey SMACK (17/21 FG, 29/29 XP LY) but they must reload at PR and KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a list of assignments that the GRIM REAPER would be proud of. The non-conference schedule is a monster (Miami, UCF, at Florida St) and how does this five-game stretch sound to end the regular season? Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, at Florida St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Ole Miss (Nov 23)
This contest pops up after the Gators have been thru the grueling TRIUMVIRATE of Georgia, Texas, and LSU and they’ve got the yuuuge game with Florida St on deck.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 20
Over 5 -125
Under 5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This is a talented team but WHOA NELLIE, that’s one heck of a schedule.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Florida was tied for DEAD LAST in the FBS last year with 3 INTs (Temple). Yup, that happened.
The legendary Brad Powers informs us that this season Florida plays an impossible EIGHT of the top-seventeen teams in his power ratings.
Florida is an absolutely disgusting 3-15 SU over the L3Y in road and neutral site games. How does that even happen? As a frame of reference, Kent St is 4-19 and Vanderbilt is 4-13 using the same criteria.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We’d normally say that year three of a regime is a HOT SEAT situation after two disappointing campaigns. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to HC Billy Napier after this season because the schedule strength is to the point of being cruelly unfair, yet they’ve underachieved so far under his tutelage. On a lighter note, Florida’s offense looks much more potent on paper in terms of THROW GAME weaponry and the defensive line has a chance to take a big step forward. Five wins feels like the right prediction but we have a SPIDEY SENSE tingling that makes us believe they’ll find a way to cobble together six wins and get to a bowl game. We hope so, anyway. That would be a successful season in our books. CHOMP CHOMP!