Florida St Seminoles 2016 NCAA Football Preview
FLORIDA ST SEMINOLES
Atlantic Coast Conference – Atlantic Division
2015 Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Atlantic Division #2
Conference #2
2015 Recap
The Seminoles had a really good season. It just wasn’t great. The QB situation was hit and miss. Dalvin Cook was incredible. The defense was good but not the brick wall we were spoiled with from 2011-2013. They only lost three games – one was a crazy finish against Georgia Tech – another a tough battle with Clemson, followed by a bowl loss to a very good Houston team. They are still 37-4 the last three seasons including 21-0 at home.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Seminoles are loaded to make another run at a National Championship. We are not going to know who the starting QB will be until August – but one thing we do know – the decision is going to be important because Florida St plays Ole Miss in week one. Senior QB Sean Maguire returns for one last season and was inconsistent in 2015. He missed all of this spring recovering from a broken ankle and redshirt freshman Deondre Francois looked pretty good.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT. Sorry. This one is too easy but we just love watching him play. RB Dalvin Cook is an incredible talent who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 TDs while also catching 24 passes. What is really great about Cook is his almost comical EXPLOSIVENESS as every time he touches the ball it is must-see-TV. He may not average 7.4 yards per carry (!!) again this season but if he can stay healthy there is no reason to think he cannot have a huge season and be a Heisman finalist.
We have not even talked about the offensive line or receiving corps. Well, for one thing, Florida St returns their entire starting offense from a year ago so you know they are experienced. The offensive line has to be better this year and it looks like they are in great shape. The WR group has an embarrassment of riches including of couple of players (Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield) that combined for 116 catches, over 1,700 yards and 13 TDs. Overall, we expect the offensive line play to be a lot better so it all comes down to QB play.
DEFENSE
The Seminoles have given up too many rushing yards per game the past two seasons (145,170) and have only generated 49 sacks over those two campaigns. Clemson had sacks 48 LAST YEAR. Things are looking really good this season as they return two excellent defensive ends who can get to the QB including 1st Team ACC DE DeMarcus Walker who had 10.5 sacks in 2015. They lose quite a bit of experience at LB and a top CB from last year’s unit but have a rising star in sophomore safety Derwin James who can do a little bit of everything because he is so fast and physical. This is shaping up to be a really good defense but they have to do a better job of stopping the run. An increase in sacks is definitely in the cards.
SPECIAL TEAMS
A couple of freshmen step in this season at PK and P and that is always a concern. It is particularly alarming when they were both excellent performers, particularly PK Roberto Aguayo who was nothing short of exceptional. Kermit Whitfield is back to return kicks and the Seminoles were very good in that department while struggling returning punts. Overall, we see some strengths and some question marks with this unit.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The Seminoles have incredible talent all over the roster. However, they have a pretty tough schedule to negotiate this season, and they will do well to get to the Clemson game without a loss. The first six games on the docket includes games against Ole Miss, Louisville, USF, North Carolina and Miami. Whoa.
Overall, we give the SEMINOLES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. Florida St bounced back from a 3-11 ATS nightmare in 2014 to go 8-5 against the number in 2015. It is hard to predict just how this team will do ATS in 2016 based on the uncertainty at QB. What we do know is that the defense should be excellent. And we know the coaching is great. That alone is a recipe to get them over the .500 mark for handicappers in 2016.
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