Florida St Seminoles 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Florida St Seminoles 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 4-7-2

The record wasn’t great but we might consider this the PURGE of 2017. It didn’t help that they lost their starting QB during their first game, and there were plenty of more injuries and discontent to deal with during the season. It’s never good to lose six games when you are Florida St, but they lost to a bunch of good teams (ROLL TIDE, NC State, Miami, Louisville, BC, Clemson) and refused to pack things up at the end of the season. They won their final three regular season games and subsequently dusted Southern Miss in the Independence Bowl.

The JIMBO ERA gives way to new HC Willie Taggart. Let’s try and figure out what kind of upside the Noles have in 2018.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Atlantic Division – #2

ACC – #2

Florida St Seminoles 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

Don’t look now but the Seminoles have a pair of experienced signal-callers to decide between this year. James Blackman did a decent job for a true freshman last season throwing for over 2,200 yards and 19 TDs. Deondre Francois had a really nice 2016 campaign (3,350, 20-7 TD to INT) and is definitely the leader in the clubhouse to start the season under center. It would be helpful for the passing attack if a true #1 threat could emerge, in particular since they lost a pair of targets to the NFL (TE Ryan Izzo, WR Arden Tate). The run game should be fantastic with Cam Akers (1,024, 7 TD LY) and Jacques Patrick (748, 7 TD) back for duty. The OL looks to be in the best shape in a while as they bring back 4/5 starters and a lot of size. If they can allow less than 30 sacks (32, 36 L2Y) and pave the way for five yards per carry, the Seminoles are going to be a LOT better on offense. That seems like a real possibility.

DEFENSE

The Seminoles have lost a lot of experience as they only return four starters to the stop unit and will be without six (!) of their top seven tacklers from last year’s defense. Those departures include a pair of NFL draft picks on the DL as well as 1st Team AA S Derwin James (1st round NFL pick – Chargers). The DL will be fine with a ton of size on the inside and the return of DE Brian Burns (13.5 TFL, 5 QBH LY). The back seven only brings back a pair of starters and they are going to have to rely on the raw talent they displayed when making the Noles’ roster. That’s what it boils down to. Have the more veteran players hold their own and hope for a couple of young stars to emerge. That’s not impossible when talking about Florida St.

Last season the Seminoles allowed 21.2 PPG (#5 ACC) and we project a similar finish in 2018.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy.

The Noles special teams unit features excellent PK Ricky Aguayo who was 18/21 on FG attempts last season and a fine P in Logan Tyler. The return units were good last season and everyone is back in 2018.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Ya, it’s nasty. The ACC docket is tough and they draw Notre Dame and Florida in non-conference action. Even the BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT Northern Illinois Huskies may have something to say.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 17 (Boston College). This game pops up after three monster games (Clemson, at NC State, at Notre Dame) and before a date with CHOMP CHOMP to finish the regular season.

Season Win Total

Over 8 -120

Under 8 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. Despite the nasty schedule it seems very unlikely that a team this loaded with talent can finish another season with fewer than eight victories.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

It’s hard to match Florida St’s long-term track record when it comes to bowl games. They have made 36 (!) consecutive trips to bowl season and have an all-time bowl record of 28-16-2.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the SEMINOLES a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.

We missed the mark on Florida St last season, but of course, anything can happen when you lose your starting QB and suffer numerous other injuries. Nonetheless, “oops”.

These guys will be much better on offense this year and heaven help ACC defenses (maybe not Clemson, amirite?) if they uncover a SURPRISE PACKAGE at WR. The defense is a bit of a concern given all the new faces. Hopefully they can hold serve at around 20 PPG allowed over the course of the year. The solid special teams is an added bonus.

New HC Willie Taggart has a less-than-stellar win-loss record of 47-50. The good news for point spread backers is that he has recorded a very sweet mark vs Vegas (59-38-1) which is 60.8% for you math fans out there. Whoa, Nellie. Can that translate to Florida St? It’s anyone’s guess, but we like his odds considering what he has to work with in 2018.

Popping them on the watch list to start the season.

Want more Florida St football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.seminoles.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=157113

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NEWS