College Football Predictions – Florida St Seminoles 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
YIKES.
The Seminoles were a colossal disappointment last year. In one nasty turn to TURD TOWN, Florida St witnessed their 36-year bowl game streak come to an end, and they also suffered their first losing season since 1976. But let’s be clear. Florida St has been REALLY good, and often outstanding, for a LONG time. They were destined to take a step backwards in year one of the Willie Taggart experience but not many people saw this DEBACLE coming.
Better times are ahead. There is a lot of young talent on this team and now they get to play with a big chip on their shoulder. Can they make a significant turnaround this year?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #3
ACC – #6
Florida St Seminoles 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Florida St was a mess on offense last season. They were 2nd last in the ACC in scoring offense (21.9 PPG), 12th in total offense (361 YPG), and #127 (!) in the FBS in rushing offense. Yup, they ran the ball kinda like Akron and UTSA. The offensive line was riddled with injuries and that played a major role in the disaster. What about this year?
We think the Noles can do some damage. We are fans of their young QB James Blackman who saw limited action last season, but recall that he did some good work as a true freshman in 2017. During that campaign he threw for over 2,200 yards and 19 TDs and proved that he was TOUGHER THAN A $3 STEAK. The guy took hits that would have snapped JOHN ELWAY in half but he kept getting up and moving on to the next play. This year he has a great set of targets to throw to, even with the departure of Nyqwan Murray (54, 744, 3 TD LY). WR Tamorrion Terry is an emerging ELITE talent and he averaged over 21 YPC last year and bagged 8 TDs. The depth is impressive. Leading rusher Cam Akers is back for duty (706 yards rushing, 23 receptions) and TE Tre’ McKitty hauled in 26 passes last season. It all comes down to the offensive line. They can’t be worse, or suffer more injuries <holds breath>, but can they improve enough to let the offense function as intended?
New OC Kendal Briles is a good one. We aren’t sure if the Noles can crack the 30 PPG mark but they are most certainly going to be a lot better in 2019.
DEFENSE
It’s a rare occurrence when Florida St allows over 30 PPG but that’s exactly what happened a season ago (31.5). The Noles were decent vs the run but were shredded through the air (269 YPG, last ACC). It will be interesting to see how they manage without two significant contributors (and NFL draft picks) on the DL. DE Brian Burns led the team in sacks (10), TFL (15.5), and QBH (8) last year and Demarcus Christmas was tough in the interior of the line. There is a PLETHORA of talented newcomers waiting to make their mark on the DL, but it remains to be seen how quickly (or if) they can dominate. The LB group returns #1 tackler Hamsah Nasirildeen and the secondary has the potential to be really good. Yup, even after last season’s disappointment. They return a lot of experience at the back of the defense and boast several highly-touted young specimens.
We will call for moderate improvement in the PPG and YPG metrics and there is upside to make a big leap forward if they can find a dangerous pass rusher or two.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Ricky Aguayo will rebound from a disappointing season (11/17 FG) and we like the look of the return units. The dangerous DJ Matthews returned a punt to the house last year vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Fortunately, the Canes mounted a huge comeback and everyone went home happy.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We will find out a lot about this squad right off the bat. They play Boise St in week one (Jacksonville) and travel to face the tough Virginia Cavaliers in week three. There are road dates with Clemson and Florida.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – ULM (September 7)
SANDWICH GAME. This contest falls between the aforementioned tough September games (Boise St, at Virginia). The Warhawks can score points and this doesn’t appear to be an ideal spot to back a Noles squad that is sure to be laying a ton of points.
Season Win Total
Over – 7.5 -125
Under – 7.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
That’s a tough number to go ‘over’ given their schedule BUT the team is going to be good. Hmm. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Gators stopped Florida St’s five-game winning streak in the SUNSHINE SHOWDOWN last year in convincing fashion with a 41-14 victory.
HC Willie Taggart has a career record of 52-57.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive
We had relatively high hopes for the Seminoles last year, but as luck would have it, that was one of the predictions we would like to have back. We dropped our expectations almost immediately when we saw the trouble brewing on the offensive line, so we suppose that is a good thing. Never be afraid to admit when you were wrong. Move on. But we digress.
The Florida St football program has maintained a high standard for a long time. There’s too much talent on this roster to believe that they will fail miserably this year, but they are almost certainly at least a year away from becoming a national power (again). It doesn’t mean they won’t be fun to watch!
Florida St has been a train wreck vs the point spread over the past two seasons (8-15-2, 35%) and this feels like a season where they can put money in our pockets more often than not. DEGENERATES still have a bad taste in their mouths from the previous two campaigns and maybe we can find some value from time to time?
Want more Florida St football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.seminoles.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=157113
FORUM
http://www.theterritory.org/phorum/list.php?5
http://floridastate.247sports.com/Board
https://floridastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-tribal-council.32/
NEWS
http://www.tallahassee.com/nolesports/football/
http://www.tomahawknation.com/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/52/florida-state-seminoles
http://bleacherreport.com/florida-state-football
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/florida-state-seminoles/
TWITTER
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