Florida St Seminoles 2021 College Football Preview
Record – 3-6
ATS – 3-6
Things got off to a rough start as they were upset by Georgia Tech in the opener and were subsequently POLEAXED by YOUR Miami Hurricanes (52-10). The rest of the season was pretty much forgettable other than the yuuuge upset over the potent North Carolina Tar Heels that came out of nowhere (W 31-28). The Noles smashed Duke in the season finale whilst hanging 56 so they come into 2021 with a tiny bit of momentum.
Florida St Seminoles 2021 Outlook
The Noles used a bunch of different QBs for various reasons LY and the best of the bunch overall was Jordan Travis who led the team in rushing (!) whilst struggling with consistency through the air (6-6 TD to INT, 55%). One of the most intriguing stories heading into the 2021 college football season has to be new starting QB Mackenzie Milton who comes back after two years of dealing with a gruesome knee injury. He tossed 72 TD passes with UCF and is hopefully exactly what the offense needs. The only significant loss at TE/WR is #2 WR Tamorrion Terry but it’s unclear if they have a true #1 option. TE Camren McDonald is a keeper (263, 11.4, 2 TD LY). #1 RB Jashaun Corbin (5 YPC LY) leads a RB room that will probably have a committee approach, at least to start the season. Florida St has had OL issues for what seems like decades but this year they boast five returning starters and 100 career starts. Florida St should average 30 PPG for the first time since 2016 (!) if Milton can stay healthy.
Yup. Look up HOT GARBAGE on the GOOGLE MACHINE and that was the defense LY. They allowed 36 PPG (#13 ACC) and 456 YPG (#13 ACC) whilst booking a mere 10 sacks (dead last ACC sacks per game). Their top-four tacklers are back in the mix, and that includes a pretty good LB duo in Amari Gainer (#1 tackles, 5 TFL) and Emmett Rice (7.5 TFL) who will be available at some point this year after suffering an injury in spring practice. That’s based on a recent update from HC Mike Norvell. There are some interesting pieces on the DL. DT Robert Cooper is a BIG body (6’2 335) as is NT Fabien Lovett. They also add DE Keir Thomas from South Cackalacky. Our primary concern is a secondary that performed poorly in 2020 that loses a few key components including 2nd round NFL draft pick CB Asante Samuel. It still feels like this defense has a long way to go.
P Alex Mastromanno did a good job LY (41.3 net) but their two PKs combined for a brutal 8/14 mark on FGA. Both of those guys are back. They could definitely use some spice at KR and PR.
Overall – They have a tough opener (Notre Dame) and draw North Carolina and Miami out of the Coastal division. Their final two games are on the road.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Boston College (November 20th)
Looks like a letdown spot coming off the game with the hated Hurricanes. It’s an even worse spot if they’re out of the bowl picture.
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes August 5
Over 5.5 -115
Under 5.5 +105
231 of our 245 sets of power ratings seem to think that they’ll finish with 5-6 wins.
After rattling off five consecutive double-digit winning seasons Florida St has compiled a disappointing record of 21-26 dating back to 2017. That includes finishing with a losing record in three consecutive years.
The ACC is a lot more interesting when Florida St is GOOD. That’s a FACT CHECK TRUE. It’s become clear that Mike Norvell has a lot more work to do than we first thought but there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully the offense can live up to its potential and lead the team to a bowl game. One step at a time, yo.
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