Florida St Seminoles 2023 College Football Preview
July 11, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
We’ll it’s about time, yo.
The Noles finally showed what they’re capable of and they not only booked ten wins, but posted their first winning season since 2017 when they slithered to a record of 7-6. It ended up being a POOP SANDWICH as they started 4-0 (beat LSU), lost their next three contests, and then ended the season on a six-game heater. They beat Oklahoma 35-32 in a very exciting Cheez-It Bowl to end the campaign, but sadly, that was a 78,000 star MEGALOCKS TRIPLE DEATH JAB LAB-GROWN POISON MEAT COMBO PLATTER POWER LOCK loser.
Does Florida St have a legit shot to knock off Clemson in the ACC?
Florida St Seminoles 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
Jordan Travis just might be the most exciting player in college football. At least he’s in the conversation. He just keeps getting better and last season was his best one yet (3,214, 24-5 TD to INT, 7 rush TD). The play is never over when he has the football as he puts the ESCAPE in ESCAPABILITY. Travis loses three of his top-four targets but retains star receiver Johnny Wilson who’s a match-up nightmare for any secondary (897, 20.9, 5 TD). The Noles added a few bodies at WR/TE thru the transfer portal including former Michigan St WR Keon Coleman which gives them two LEGIT doods at WR. The RB room is deep and features a monster #1 option in Trey Benson (990, 9 TD, 6.4) and that gives the Noles devastating offensive balance. It’s taken a LONG time to fix the offensive line, but to quote the great PHIL STEELE, “They have an amazing 206 career starts returning, making this the most experienced OL we’ve ever come across.” Yes sir, this offense is gonna be trouble.
DEFENSE
The Noles were a stout outfit last year (322 YPG, #1 ACC) but they displayed a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run (156 YPG, #11). They kept opposing QBs on their toes (40 sacks, #4) and were excellent in terms of defending the pass (#2 pass efficiency D). Nine starters are retained and they look really good up front. The DL boasts four returning starters including AA DE Jared Verse (9 sacks, 17 TFL LY) as well as a few talented transfer portal specimens. Florida St brings back their top-three LBs and have one of the best units in the ACC, whilst the secondary looks decent despite the loss of All-Universe safety Jammie Robinson. These guys aren’t “Clemson-good” but they’re one of the best stop units in the ACC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They’re in decent shape. Punter Alex Mastromanno does fine work and Trey Benson is a weapon on KR (38.4, TD, 5 KR). We’ve got good news to report as it appears that Ryan “Coin Flip” Fitzgerald (12/20 FG LY) will be replaced by FCS transfer Tyler Keltner.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s gonna be a challenge. They start the season with a rematch with LSU (!) and have to battle Clemson, Pitt, and Florida on the road. At least they miss North Carolina in the ACC rotation.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Southern Miss (Sept 9)
We don’t expect an upset, but we’re not crazy about laying a lot of points in a sandwich spot between the LSU opener and the beginning of ACC play the following week (at Boston College).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 11
Over 9.5 -140
Under 9.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
Slight LEANAGE to the ‘under’ on this market but it looks like a 50/50 shot. If they beat LSU in the opener they’ll probably hit the ‘over’. It’s still not easy to trust this program to win ten games.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Florida St last made an appearance in the ACC Championship Game back in 2014 when they squeaked past Georgia Tech (W 37-35). They’ve made five appearances in the big game but have never faced Clemson.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
These guys are loaded and ready to battle for the ACC crown, but how will they handle the high expectations? There’s nothing that stands out to us in terms of a significant weakness but the schedule will definitely test them from start to finish. We give them a great shot to make the ACC title game and they just might be able to sneak into the College Football Playoff if everything breaks right. Good luck, Seminoles!