Florida St Seminoles 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 28, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 13-1
ATS – 8-6
“Deserve got nothing to do with it.”
<Snoop, The Wire>
The Seminoles started with a beatdown of LSU (W 45-24) and ended with a win over LUA-VUH in the ACC Championship Game with what seemed like their 7th string QB. Sure, they were destroyed by Georgia in the Orange Bowl, but that wasn’t the “2023 Florida St Seminoles” for obvious personnel reasons. No matter what you think about the College Football Playoff and whether or not Florida St should have made the dance, there’s no doubt they had a great season.
Florida St Seminoles 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
As fans of YOUR Miami Hurricanes, it pains us just a little bit to acknowledge how much we enjoyed watching former star QB Jordan Travis (64%, 20-2 TD to INT, 7 rush TD LY). Florida St has to move on from the Travis era and note that they’ll also be without last year’s backup Tate Rodemaker who performed well in limited action (5-0 TD to INT). The Seminoles picked up former Oregon St/Clemson veteran QB DJ Uiagalelei (57-24 career TD to INT) which was a good addition, and NO, he hasn’t been playing college football since the 1980s. RB Trey Benson will be tough to replace (905, 14 TD; 3rd round NFL draft pick) but the Noles bagged ROLL TIDE Roydell Williams to fill the void and they still have a solid backup in Lawrance Toafili. The market seems to think that it’s no big deal to lose three (!) players to the NFL at WR/TE but we forecast a noticeable drop in productivity and/or big play ability from the THROW GAME. The offensive line has five projected senior starters, and according to the intrepid Phil Steele, there are 190 career starts amongst the group. That makes us believe Florida St will be much better on the ground in 2024, and it also means that QB DJU will have a lot of opportunities to hit big plays off play-action.
DEFENSE
Florida St has had one of the best defenses in college football over the L2Y and the 2023 stop unit allowed a mere 19 PPG (#18) whilst CREAMING opposing QBs (46 sacks, #4). The Noles will be rolling this year with just five returning starters and they’ll be missing their top-two tacklers and a few devastating performers including Jared Verse (9 sacks, 11 QBH; 1st round NFL draft pick). The DL will be rock solid despite losing a pair of studs (Verse, Fiske) to the NFL as the unit is CHOCK FULL of highly-recruited specimens. Also keep an eye on DE Marvin Jones Jr. who comes over from Georgia. The LB unit is a concern given the departure of their top-two (!) tacklers (Bethune, DeLoach) but they’ve still got DE/LB Patrick Payton hanging around and he filled up the stat sheet in 2023 (7 sacks, 14.5 TFL, 10 PBU, 7 QBH). Florida lost a pair of key starters in the secondary (#6 pass efficiency D LY) but there’s still plenty of talent on the back end. The defense has lots of raw ability but it remains to be seen if they can simply reload similar to programs like Georgia, Ohio St, and ROLL TIDE.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Florida St is loaded on special teams given the return of PK Ryan Fitzgerald (19/21 FG, 58/58 XP LY), ace punter Alex Mastromanno (45.5, 43.3 net), and KR Deuce Spann (30.8, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Seminoles only have four true road games but three of those are gonna be serious battles (SMU, Miami, Notre Dame). Florida St draws a game with the JUGGERNAUT Memphis Tigers but at least that contest is in Tallahassee.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Notre Dame (Nov 9)
GET CHO POPCONE! This is going to be a fantastic game but it’s also a brutal scheduling situation for the Seminoles as it’ll be their 3rd road game in four weeks and Notre Dame will be coming off a bye.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 28
Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
Florida St lost a lot of talent off that 2023 roster and the road schedule takes no prisoners.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Florida St is just 23-31 ATS as a home favorite (43%) over the L10Y.
The Mike Norvell experience is kicking into HIGH GEAR as they’ve posted an excellent record of 23-4 (.852) over the L2Y. The Seminoles were a feeble 19-27 (.413) from 2018-2021.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Seminoles are a playoff-caliber team despite losing so much talent from last year’s squad. The rushing attack has the potential to steamroll the majority of their opponents and they’ve got a veteran QB to run the show. We’re not confident about filling all the holes on defense but you can’t deny the raw talent in the stop unit. We’ll call for nine or ten wins and give them a good shot of making the expanded CFP if they can beat Notre Dame or Miami on the road.