Florida St Seminoles 2026 College Football Preview
Posted July 12, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 5-7
schadenfreude /ˈSHädənˌfroidə/ noun
- Pleasure derived by someone from another person’s misfortune.
- The quiet (or not-so-quiet) joy felt while watching a proud program get absolutely wrecked for two straight years.
Things had to get better after the debacle of 2024 when the Seminoles finished a UMass-esque 2-10. Even Miami fans felt sorry for people having to watch that disgusting mess. Okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea.
As far as 2025 goes, we were surprised by their opening demolition of ROLL TIDE as the Seminoles actually made it look easy. Things fell apart after the nasty OT loss at Virginia, and next thing you know Florida St was sitting at 3-4. They had two chances at the end of the regular season to qualify for a bowl game but they came up short. Another losing season in Tallahassee.
Florida St Seminoles 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (ACC):
- Scoring: 33.0 PPG (#3)
- Total Offense: 472.1 YPG (#1)
- Rushing: 218.7 YPG (#1)
- Passing: 253.4 YPG (#8)
- Sacks Allowed: 23 (#8)
Those don’t look like the numbers from a team that had a losing record, particularly in this day and age when almost everyone from a Power 4 conference makes a bowl game. They were even a sparkling 51% on 3rd downs (#8 FBS). What in the SAM HILL happened? Well, they turned the ball over in scoring position way too many times, and don’t forget that they put up 143 (!) points and over 1,500 yards (!) in two games vs the East Texas St Chess Club and the corpse of Kent St.
The quarterback situation heading into 2026 looks a bit suspect as the Noles will have to decide between last year’s backup Kevin Sperry and veteran dual-threat specimen Ashton Daniels, who’s been just okay during his time with Auburn and Stanford (24-22 TD to INT, plenty of rushing yards). Daniels has been given the nod as the starter as we approach press time, but we’ll have to see how things go. Veteran transfer Tommy Castellanos didn’t exactly work out last year.
We like the depth in the RB room as it features a nice mix of proven production and youngsters with upside. The trio of sophomore Ousmane Kromah (408, 5.7), veteran Quintrevion Wisner (Texas, 1,064 yards in 2024), and Sam Singleton (360, 7.1) should do some significant damage. Much like Clemson, Florida St has a ridiculous 1-2 combo at WR in Duce Robinson (1,081, 19.3, 6 TD) and Micahi Danzy (571, 21.2, 3 TD), and don’t sleep on tight end Landen Thomas who has to explode at some point, AMIRITE?
It’s a bit of a leap of faith with a litany of new starters but they’ve got an absolute beast at LT in Xavier Chaplin (Auburn), a solid veteran in Bradyn Joiner (Purdue), and our Florida St OL INSIDERS are very high on redshirt freshman Chavez “SANDMAN” Thompson who could end up starting at center.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (ACC):
- Scoring: 22.0 PPG (#6)
- Total Defense: 328.8 YPG (#5)
- Rushing Defense: 138.1 YPG (#10)
- Passing Defense: 190.8 YPG (#2)
- Sacks: 31 (#5)
The defense was decent overall, although the run defense kinda fell apart in the final three games. In any event, this side of the football wasn’t a major problem, so it’ll be interesting to see how things work out in 2026.
The DL has promise with the return of the talented Desir brothers at DE, and Mandrell could be emerging as a real stud (6.5 sacks as a freshman). Otherwise, it looks like a good front that lacks the undeniable, elite national DOODS that FSU historically relies on to take over games. The LB room is led by a pair of productive veterans in Blake Nichelson (#5 tackles, 6.5 TFL) and Southern Miss transfer Chris Jones who racked up an impossible 133 tackles with the Golden Eagles in 2025, and we certainly like that. The secondary features Ashlynd Barker (#2 tackles) moving to Rover, and he’s probably the most important piece of the entire stop unit. There are several good pieces on the back end, including a few from the transfer portal, but they appear to be missing a true difference-maker at safety, or a shutdown CB. Time will tell.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Last year’s unit must be entirely replaced, and that’s probably a good thing since they finished outside the top-100 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings. Florida St fans will be happy to see a new PK after watching Jake Weinberg SPRAY IT all over the yard.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Noles have a pair of FREE SQUARES in non-conference play, but they also have a pair of doozies. They’ve gotta travel to face ROLL TIDE who’ll be looking for revenge, and of course there’s the annual battle with the Gators (H) at the end of the regular season. The ACC schedule is a bit of a bear, and check out this three-game stretch, yo: at Lua-Vuh, at Miami, <bye week> Clemson.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Pittsburgh (Nov 13)
This will be Florida St’s fourth road game in just over a month, and it’s never easy to win in Pittsburgh, especially in potentially nasty weather come mid-November. If their ACC dreams are cooked at this point, it might be a lay-down-and-die spot. Beware.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – July 12
Over 6.5 +150
Under 6.5 -190
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This team is definitely talented enough to make a bowl game, but look what happened last year? The schedule doesn’t help their cause, but we’d take the over at plus money if forced to make a choice.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Doak Campbell Stadium is the largest continuous brick structure in the Western Hemisphere, and some still claim it’s second in the world only to the Great Wall of China… even though big chunks of the Great Wall aren’t even brick. But hey, never let facts get in the way of a good Noles boast, yo.
From 1987 to 2000, Florida State lived in the AP Top 5 like it was a timeshare. Fourteen straight seasons. No program has ever matched that run, and the NCAA record still stands.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It was another disappointing season down in Tallahassee, but it’s also worth noting that Florida State has only had TWO winning seasons since they went 7–6 back in 2017. That seems impossible, yet it’s true.
We like this year’s roster on both sides of the ball, but we don’t love it — and that’s the problem. They look like a solid upper‑tier ACC squad, but a major question mark at quarterback caps their ultimate ceiling. While a challenging schedule looms with quite a few nasty tests, there is zero excuse for this team to miss a bowl game. A conference title feels entirely out of reach… but then again, Duke SHOCKED THE WORLD and won it last year.
Go Noles!