Florida St vs LSU – College Football Predictions
Posted September 1, 2022
The Game
Sunday night football, buh buh.
This should be a very entertaining event as Florida St battles LSU down in New Orleans. The Brian Kelly era begins in Baton Rogue and he’s got a roster CHOCK FULL of talent. Florida St is trying to become relevant in the ACC but are 8-13 SU in two years under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have a game under their belt after waxing something known as Duquesne 47-7 in week 0.
Let’s go!
The Details
LSU -3 Florida St (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -4
MEGALOCKS market consensus – LSU -3.1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 27.25 Florida St 24.25
The Match-Up:
LSU offense vs Florida St defense
The Tigers have the option of using a VERY mobile QB with MEH passing skillzz in Arizona St transfer Jayden Daniels, or a more traditional pocket passer in highly-touted specimen Garrett Nussmeier. That’s a good option to have if things aren’t clicking on offense. The WR group has the potential to be one of the best in the SEC and it’s great to see star WR Keyshon Boutte healthy and ready to go. It’s unclear if the Tigers have a true #1 RB but they’ll be rotating a few guys in this game, but not projected starter John Emery who’s out. The OL is the biggest question mark on offense as they have plenty of raw talent but are VERY young. True freshman LT Will Campbell will eventually be a great one but he’s playing in his first game. Florida St should be able to hold up well vs the run but we worry about where the pass rush is gonna come from given the loss of their top-two PENETRATORS from 2021. We like Daniels to have some key runs in this game but would be surprised if the RBs did a ton of good work. LSU definitely has the MINERALS to hit some big plays in the THROW GAME and the upside to go BANANAS.
Florida St offense vs LSU defense
Florida St had three (!) RBs rush for over 100Y last week but facing the FCS-level DUKES is much different than taking on an elite DL. They’ll be able to move the ball at times on the ground as they just have too much RB talent and QB Jordan Travis is a very dangerous runner. The problem is that we don’t see the Noles having the ability to consistently threaten LSU with the pass. The WR unit is decent but Travis hasn’t proven to be a consistently dangerous passer so far in his career. FSU is playing with a 2nd/3rd string center which isn’t ideal going against the aforementioned nasty LSU front. The Tigers should be ok on the back end as they added a few decent pieces in the transfer portal. We expect Florida St to hit a small handful of 20+ yard plays but it’ll be a challenge to match LSU from an offensive standpoint.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The INTREPID Brad Powers reminds us that Mike Norvell faced Chip Kelly a few times when he was at Notre Dame….and while he lost both games….the Noles found a way to move the ball on good Irish defenses…..If you consider this a “road dog situation” (we give LSU two points HF, New Orleans) then you might wanna know that Norvell is 4-9-2 ATS in that situation…..FWIW, teams that have played a game taking on team that hasn’t played yet have been a SOLID FADE over the L15Y (43% ATS)…..That might mean squat but that little tidbit puts a small “plus” in LSU’s column.
Summary
We favor the Tigers in this one. They are the more talented team with a couple of decent options at QB and a great DL. We also like the upgrade at HC as you know that LSU will be well-prepared and very unlikely to throw this game away due to stupidity. We’ll roll with the talented SEC squad vs a good, but not great ACC team.
Conclusion
Official play – LSU -3 -105 <sent Sept 2, 4:45pm>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.