Fresno St Bulldogs 2016 NCAA Football Preview
FRESNO ST BULLDOGS
Mountain West Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #6
Conference #12
2015 Recap
Fresno St continued their slide last season finishing 3-9. They had an 11-win season in 2013 and managed to win 6 games in 2014. To be fair, when you have to mix and match four quarterbacks due to injuries and poor play, your season is in jeopardy right from the start. The fact that their defense was a hot mess did not help the situation (team record 38 points per game allowed). They were in the bottom third in the conference in rushing defense and pass efficiency defense. There was really nothing positive to take from the 2015 season as the Bulldogs only managed to beat UNLV and Hawaii. And Abilene Christian.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Bulldog’s QB situation is completely up for grabs. They have a ton of options to consider but the problem is that the options are not that appealing. Chason Virgil is likely to get first crack at the starting job as he looked the best (?) in limited action last season. MEGALOCKS CAMPUS INSIDERS advise us that a wild-card may be California transfer Zach Kline but we need to see how the summer camp goes. HC DeRuyter is on the hot seat and we doubt he lasts the season with another QB carousel.
Assuming that Fresno St can identify a decent option to go with at QB, there are still question marks at RB and the offensive line returns only two starters to a group like was sub-par in 2015. The WR corps should be fine but we worry about them getting the ball consistently. This feels like an offense in transition to us without a ton of upside. They have gone from 43 points a game – to 26 – to 22 last season. Somewhere between the 2014 and 2015 production looks like a safe bet for this year’s squad.
DEFENSE
The hot take here would be to predict they cannot get any worse than giving up 38 points per game. If the Bulldogs can avoid a three-game stretch like last season where they gave up 73,45,49 then they should be fine in that regard. The real question is can the defense be good enough to get this team to a bowl game? We just do not see that happening based on the returning talent on the roster. Now they did add some junior college transfers to the mix but there is a ton of work to do here in order for Fresno St to grab six wins and gain bowl eligibility.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Fresno St looks to be pretty average across the board on special teams. The return game was ok in 2015 and PK Kody Kroening was 6/8. They need to break in a new punter this season. Basically, the Bulldogs cannot afford this unit to be a problem area.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The Bulldogs look to have a tough season ahead. There may be a slight chance that all the new pieces come together, but realistically, that is not a scenario a handicapper wants to rely on when setting up his or her card for the week.
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 1.0 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season. There are question marks all across the board. Fresno has had two pretty awful seasons ATS in the last three years bringing their overall record in that time span to 15-23-1 (39%). This includes a 3-10 record (23%) in non-conference games and they have some tough ones in 2016 – Nebraska, Toledo and even Tulsa. This team looks like fade material unless a solid QB emerges and the defense plays significantly better than expectations.
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Website
http://www.gobulldogs.com/index.aspx?path=football
Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/fresno-state/forums/1686-bark-board
News
http://www.fresnobee.com/sports/college/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/san-diego-st-aztecs
http://www.mwcconnection.com/fresno-state-bulldogs-football
http://bleacherreport.com/fresno-state-football
https://twitter.com/FresnoStateFB (@FresnoStateFB)
https://twitter.com/rkuwada (@rkuwada) Robert Kuwada