Fresno St Bulldogs 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 20, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 6-6-1
“Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.” <Forrest Gump> <Forrest Gump>
Also potentially notable:
“Ladies, pass the bong and let’s get in the hot tub.” <Forrest Hump> <Forrest Hump Visits the Bad Girl Camp 3>
The Bulldogs were one of the most unpredictable teams in the nation last year. Lose. Win 3. Lose 2. Win 2. Lose 2. Win. Lose 2. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs only managed to beat one legitimate team (San Jose St) and they finished with their first losing record since 2019 (4-8).
Fresno St Bulldogs 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs were a mess on offense LY as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground (98 YPG, #124) whilst QB Mikey Keene made too many mistakes (18-11 TD to INT). Fresno St has made at least a mild upgrade at QB given the transfer of EJ Warner (Temple, Rice) and FCS sensation Carson Conklin (Sacramento St). The RB room is in fine shape as they return their top-two RBs including Bryson Donelson (6.0) but we’re not thrilled with the THROW GAME targets. The Bulldogs have to replace their top-three (!) WRs that combined for well over 2,000 yards and 15 TDs LY and the transfer portal haul doesn’t look great on paper. Maybe doods like Josiah Ayon (Western Colorado) or Jahlil McClain can make a difference but we’ll have to see how things go. The OL looks a bit sketchy as they only return two starters but maybe some FRESH MEAT is just what the doctor ordered?
DEFENSE
The defense was sound LY (#50 rushing defense, #14 pass efficiency D) but it’ll be a challenge to repeat that performance as the Bulldogs lose their top-three tacklers and the majority of their top sack producers. Three starters are gone up front but they’ve got good size on the interior and we like the DE situation with Jahzon Jacks and Korey Foreman both returning for battle. The LB room appears to be the weak link on defense and they’ll need transfers to step up immediately. The secondary performed admirably a season ago and it’s in great shape this year in light of the return of three starters including stud CB ALZILLION Hamilton (4.5 TFL, 13 PBU). This will be an above-average Mountain West defense but we worry about their ability to achieve PENETRATION and get after the quarterback.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s continuity in the kicking game given the return of PK Dylan Lynch (13/20 FG, 38/39 XP LY) and punter Clay Lawrence but they’ll definitely miss ace PR Jalen Moss (12.8, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a bit tricky. Road trips to Kansas and Oregon St aren’t gonna be fun and they better not sleep on Georgia Southern when they come to town on August 30th. The set of Mountain West assignments worries us as the Bulldogs need to travel to Hawaii, Colorado St, Boise St, and San Jose St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 20
Over 6.5 -125
Under 6.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
New head coach. Reset on both sides of the football. Not an easy schedule. We were hoping for a ‘flat 7’ to go ‘under’, but here we are.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bulldogs are 10-4-1 ATS (71%) as a home underdog over the L10Y.
Fresno St is an incredible +42 (!) in turnover margin since 2017. The last time they were negative in this particular metric was back in 2016 (-9).
Fresno recently became one of the few jurisdictions in California to resist the communist insurgency and the “89 Genders Syndrome” that is plaguing Western civilization.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This looks like a reloading season for the Bulldogs as they prepare for their departure to the PAC 12. The QB situation is promising and the defense will be fine but they don’t appear on paper to be a serious Mountain West contender. Fresno St made a great hire at HC in Matt Entz who won a pair (!) of FCS Championships with North Dakota St but the payoff of that decision will likely come in 2026 and beyond. We’ll call for six wins and a minor bowl game appearance.