Frisco Bowl – Ohio vs San Diego St
The Game
We have a sneaky-good match-up in this year’s edition of the Frisco Bowl as Ohio takes on San Diego St. Ohio just might be the best team in the MAC and the Aztecs had a couple of solid wins including a triumph over Boise St on the Smurf Turf. Ohio has played better down the stretch winning five of their last six games and San Diego St struggled losing four of their last five contests. Can they turn it around?
The Details
Ohio -3 San Diego St (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio 28.5 San Diego St 25.5
The Match-Up:
Ohio offense vs San Diego St defense
It starts and ends with the ground attack, yo. The RB combo of 16th year senior (just kidding. not really.) AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons have rumbled for almost 2,000 yards and 20 TDs (!) so far this season. When you combine that with the mobility of QB Nathan Rourke (13 rushing TDs) it becomes crystal clear that the Aztecs need to stop this run game to have a shot of winning. All-MEGALOCKS team member QB Rourke can also MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game as has a fine 22-7 TD to INT ratio at an impressive 8.79 yards per attempt. WR Papi White is a true talent (897, 15.5, 9 TD) and will be the primary weapon for Rourke in the passing game. The bad news for Ohio? San Diego St is ranked #4 (!) in the FBS in run defense and #3 in yards per carry allowed. Only Clemson and Michigan St have been better. The Ohio offense rarely bogs down, but when it does, it is because they have trouble running the football. The Aztecs have enough speed to contain Rourke and we wonder how much success he can have throwing into tight windows.
San Diego St offense vs Ohio defense
You can’t sugar coat it. Things have been a bit ugly. The Aztecs are ranked #108 in total offense (#74 rushing, #98 passing) and have not put a scare into anybody this season. The good news? Starting QB Christian Chapman is healthy after missing a good chunk of the campaign and is a much better fit for this offense than back-up Ryan Agnew. RB Juwan Washington has tallied 870 yards and 10 TDs despite missing a good portion of the season due to injury and has a great shot to exceed 1,000 yards in this bowl game. The WR group won’t blow you away BUT the team averages 14.9 (!) yards per reception and that is excellent. WR Fred Trevillion has caught 22 balls at 27.2 (!) yards per grab. The strength of the Ohio defense lies in stopping the run (#2 MAC, 136 yards per game) but this will be a stern challenge. They are relatively incompetent at defending the pass and have trouble getting PENETRATION (#9 MAC sacks – 22).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Ohio is just 3-8 in bowl games although they did destroy UAB last season in the Bahamas Bowl….Ohio QB Nathan Rourke is not only awesome but from our hometown of Oakville, Ontario, Canada….The head coaches have a combined age of 142.
Summary
The Aztecs are going to give the Bobcats all kinds of trouble with a defense that doesn’t give up anything on the ground. Ohio has a tradition of laying eggs in bowl games and are not to be trusted as a favorite vs Mountain West opposition who are on a 6-1 ATS run vs MAC teams in bowl games. The Aztecs are a much better play as underdogs and we have no problem grabbing them in this spot. A potentially meaningless trivia tidbit? MEGALOCKS members cashed in a 890,009 star SUPER LOCK MASSACRE EARLY BUT SOMEWHAT LATE RELEASE last year when we nailed Louisiana Tech vs SMU in the 2017 Frisco Bowl.
Conclusion
Official play: San Diego St +3 -115
(note this was published to the site on Dec 14)