2017 ALAMO BOWL – STANFORD vs TCU
TCU -2.5 STANFORD (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -1
Sagarin ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 26 Stanford 23
The Game
The Alamo Bowl is one of the best match-ups of the bowl season as it includes a pair of teams that won a combined 19 games during the regular season and BOTH squads almost won conference championships. TCU bagged 10 wins but a pair of losses to Oklahoma left them out of the playoff discussion. Stanford has reached the 9-win mark and a pair of losses to USC prevented them from reaching higher goals. Two solid teams. Two great head coaches. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
TCU offense vs Stanford defense
We get one more chance to watch KENNY THRILL HILL at the QB controls. Hill passed for over 2,800 yards and 21 TDs whilst only tossing 6 INT. They run a balanced attack with a deep group of WRs (J Diarse #1 – 543 yards) and a 1-2 punch at RB. Now the big question is whether or not the #1 is ready to go. Darius Anderson is their most talented RB (768, 8 TD, 6.0) and but he is listed as questionable. Kyle Hicks is a veteran runner who can be productive but the Frogs will be much more dangerous with Anderson in the mix. Stanford’s defense will be tested and they did not have the success of recent seasons (#74 FBS) giving up chunks on the ground and oodles of yards via the air on different occasions. They are well coached but this will be a challenge. A big concern ? TCU is excellent on 3rd downs (#4 FBS) and Stanford has trouble getting off the field (#106).
Stanford offense vs TCU defense
Here we go ! One last shot to see star RB Bryce Love rip through opposing defenses. He has been banged up most of the 2nd half of the season but should be close to 100% for this contest. Of course, you never know when someone might decide to sit out for the purposes of “NFL draft prep”, but our PAC 12 INSIDERS feel he will go. The trick is that they will be facing one of the best run defenses in the FBS (#4) that also gets a lot of PENETRATION. Ideally Love can do what he does, or close to it, and hot QB KJ Costello can go to work with #1 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside and the seemingly endless supply of excellent receiving tight ends. Stanford keeps the QB clean and does not turn the ball over (10 ALL season; one in the past four games) so TCU is gonna have to win the battles straight up without relying on the Cardinal imploding. TCU has been excellent in the red zone (#2 FBS) and it may be that Costello will have to take more shots down the field than he normally would to win this game.
Motivation / Intangibles
TCU – They lost the Big 12 Championship game but will be up for a big name PAC 12 school. They also get to play close to home which is sometimes helpful, other times irrelevant.
Grade – Above Average.
Stanford – The were defeated in the PAC 12 Championship game and are a bit more used to playing on a bigger stage recently during the post-season. It’s still extra rare for these dudes to ever mail it in.
Grade – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Great coaching in this game ! Legend Gary Patterson is 9-4 in his last 13 bowl games and David Shaw just WINS and usually covers when in the underdog role (12-3 ATS L15)…….A big difference maker in this contest just might be the return game of TCU (punts and kickoffs) as they can throw some ridiculous speed at you. <grabs popcorn>
Summary
This could go either way (HOT TAKE). Stanford getting 3 points is mighty tasty but the Horned Frogs without question have the better defense. That is worth three points right there. Not to mention the return game. If RB Anderson plays it will give their offense a boost. On the flipside, Stanford has looked really good on offense with Love and Costello back there. Really good. And Shaw is pretty much always on our NEVER FADE list. Hmmmmm.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Over 49.
Dude, you gonna put small potatoes on this bad boy ? No