2017 ARIZONA BOWL – UTAH ST vs NEW MEXICO ST
UTAH ST -4 NEW MEXICO ST (64)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah St -3
Sagarin ratings – Utah St -9
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah St 34 New Mexico St 30
The Game
YES, GUY !
MEGALOCKS Season Preview readers know that we have been cheering for this program to get to bowl game and here they are. In the flesh. They won their final two games to get to 6-6 and that was good enough for a bid to the Arizona Bowl. It’s their final year in Sun Belt play so you know they want to go out with a bang and win in their first bowl appearance since 1960. Utah St also finished up with a record of 6-6 and have become a bowl regular this past decade although they did miss out in 2016. Gotta give HC Matt Wells and the kids a lot of credit for grinding it out. Let’s goooooooo !
The Match-Up
Utah St offense vs New Mexico St defense
It’s hard to get too jacked up when looking at the stats. Utah St is #57 in rushing and #71 in passing but have transitioned to new QB Jordan Love who is a bit more erratic than Kent Myers, but at the same time, he provides more upside. RB LaJuan Hunt had three 100 yard games in the Aggies final 5 contests and will be the workhorse in this match-up. Utah St does not have a player with more than 500+ yards receiving and will rely on the the legs of Hunt and the arm/legs of Love to keep the chains moving. New Mexico St was average vs the run and vs the pass. Their strength is forcing turnovers (25), getting PENETRATION (#3 !! FBS in sacks per game; total of 40) and playing solid D on 3rd downs (#15 FBS). New Mexico St struggles more vs high-octane offenses so this appears to be a good match-up.
New Mexico St offense vs Utah St defense
Here is comes, baby. New Mexico St has the #4 passing offense in the FBS led by senior QB Tyler Rogers who threw for over 3,800 yards and 26 TD passes. There were also 16 INTs mixed in there and he will have to be careful vs an opportunistic Utah St defense that was tied for 12th in the FBS with 26 takeaways. Utah St allowed just 56% completions but did not see too many (any ?) QBs like Mr Rogers. The weakness of the Utah St defense is their SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run (#116 FBS) but New Mexico prefers to throw it around the yard despite having an excellent back in Larry Rose III. Utah St does not get much pressure on the QB so will need to be patient and wait for mistakes. This also feels like a pretty good match-up for New Mexico St.
Motivation / Intangibles
Utah St – Bowl games are always a big deal for this program. HC Matt Wells is 2-1 in bowl games. The favorite typically has more pressure in games like this one.
Grade – Average.
New Mexico St – First bowl game since 1960. Yup, a big deal.
Grade – Epic.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The last time New Mexico St played in a bowl game back in 1960 they played……wait for it……wait……be patient…….Utah St. We all remember how that game turned out (20-13 New Mexico St victory)……Amaze your psycho ex-girlfriend with this gem…..New Mexico St and Utah St have 12 combined wins and NONE of those came vs bowl teams.
Summary
Utah St might be a bit more well-rounded but they are going up against the team that has a DATE with DESTINY. The teams combined to force an amazing 51 turnovers and they gave it away 48 times. Expect wild. Expect strange. Expect kooky.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Small to medium potatoes on New Mexico St +4.