2017 ARMED FORCES BOWL – SAN DIEGO ST vs ARMY
SAN DIEGO ST -6 ARMY (46)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -4
Sagarin ratings – San Diego St -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 26 Army 20
The Game
Yes, guy.
Army won the Commander In Chief Trophy for the first time in a LONG while after beating Navy in their final regular season game (a 90,000 STAR MEGALOCKS SERVICE ACADEMY LASER LOCK BOMB winner). The Black Knights boast a record of 9-3 that could easily be 11-1. You knew the loss to Ohio St was coming but they lost late to Tulane and North Texas.
San Diego St’s season was a disappointment. They were set up with a good schedule and loaded team but did not deliver the goods. 10-2 is nothing to sneeze at BUT back-to-back losses to Fresno and Boise meant that they did not even make the Mountain West title game. They are still rock solid and have the MINERALS to slow down the Army rushing attack. Let’s goooooooo !
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs Army defense
The Aztecs have one of the best players in college football in RB Rashaad Penny and we get one last chance to see him work before he is off to the NFL. Penny ran for an eye-popping 2,027 yards and 19 touchdowns this season and was also a devastating force in the return game. Juwan Washington provides excellent depth in the running game and QB Christian Chapman is a very good game manager (3 INT in 233 attempts). San Diego St only has one player with more than 300 yards receiving and need the ground game to work to win games. Amaze your local Subway sandwich artist with this gem – Penny’s YPC gets better as the game goes on – 7.1,6.0,7.4 and then 9.3 yards per carry in the final quarter. If they can sustain long drives it looks good going into the later stages of the game. Army finished up ranked #34 in the FBS on defense but struggled a lot vs the pass. This is a better match-up for the Black Knights than a pass-happy offense but they are still going to have to deal with Penny and do their best to not let him go completely nuts. They were ranked a disappointing #100 in yards per carry allowed (4.96) and we wonder how much success they are going to have defending the run. It seems to us that their best defense is going to be their offense.
Army offense vs San Diego St defense
Which brings us here. Army just crushes and kills. They have the #1 rushing offense, the number one team on 3rd downs, own the time of possession battle (#5 FBS) and make very few mistakes (#4 FBS penalty yards). It’s a basic recipe but it works really well. They will go entirely games (like, for real, like) without throwing a pass but we feel like they may need to take a stab or two in this contest. San Diego St finished up #11 in total defense (#11 – 2016) and are well suited to stopping the Army running game.
Motivation / Intangibles
San Diego St – Hard to say. The had bigger things in mind this season.
Grade – Below Average.
Army – The are on cloud nine after the big win over Navy. What a season. Normally you would say they are borderline fade material but it’s never wise to discount the motivation of Army, Navy or Air Force.
Grade – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
RB Rashaad Penny has returned 7 kickoffs and one punt for TDs in his college career (2 KO, 1 punt in 2017)……In fact Penny has returned 7/79 kickoffs for touchdowns…..The Aztecs last five wins ? Hawaii, San Jose St, Nevada, New Mexico and UNLV. Not exactly a who’s who in dominating football powerhouses.
Summary
It’s the first edition of BAND CAMP STORY GUY……..Apparently one time in band camp, San Diego St HC Rocky Long was incredible ATS when facing option teams, …….that is the narrative we have been hearing for a few weeks. The reality ? As a head coach he is 6-7 ATS against Army, Navy and Air Force and that includes the bowl game DEBACLE a few years ago when he lost outright to Navy. THIN SLICING GUY may be able to come up with an amazing sub-system, and of course, the record might look different if you include his record as a DC and/or defensive coach back in the 1950s. Overall he is also 4-7 in bowl games.
Our gut says that San Diego St should win and cover BUT we still think you are paying a premium. We have the fair line closer to 3 or 4 as do the Sagarin numbers. That often means absolutely nothing but just a bit of a warning. We are tempted. Just can’t fully recommend the Aztecs based on motivation and the history of this HC when NOT playing in a regular season conference game.
Laying a FG would be fine. Laying a TD ? Not sold.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Use San Diego St in a ML parlay. We lean a bit to the under but 46 is just too low for our tastes.
Dude, you got any small potatoes rolling on this game ? No.