2017 BAHAMAS BOWL – UAB vs OHIO
OHIO -6.5 UAB (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio -5
Sagarin ratings – Ohio -12
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio 32.75 UAB 26.25
The Game
It’s better in the Bahamas, yo !
We love the Bahamas and have looked forward to watching this game since the first edition in 2014. Who can forget the 49-48 Western Kentucky vs Central Michigan tilt ? An all-time fourth quarter. Last season’s game was also entertaining with two teams (Old Dominion, Eastern Michigan) REALLY playing hard for the “W”. TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY can stop reading now and go yell at clouds and be miserable.
It is still pretty amazing to think that Ohio did NOT get into the MAC Championship game. The MAC East was a dumpster fire in 2017 and yet somehow the Bobcats managed to puke away their season with a loss to Akron. An 8-4 record is fine BUT the expectations were a lot higher this year. UAB is a GREAT story with the program REBOOT and making a bowl game in the first season off hiatus. UAB has never won a bowl game and will be GEEKED up for this one. They also finished up at 8-4. Let’s dig in !
The Match-Up
Ohio offense vs UAB defense
If you have not seen Ohio QB Nathan Rourke play this season you are going to be impressed. Rourke is quickly developing into a star and he finished up with 15 TD passes and 21 (!) rushing scores. It is not out of the question that he reached the 1,000-yard mark (882) in this contest, although truthfully, it won’t be easy against an underrated UAB defense. The big worry coming into this game is the health at the RB position. #1 RB AJ Ouellette is listed as doubtful and #2 Dorian Brown is questionable for the game. Injuries are most often overrated at the RB spot, BUT when you are without your top-2 and lack proven depth, it has to be a concern. The WR group is decent but are going up against the #1 (!) pass efficiency defense in C-USA. The Blazers were just #71 vs the run and Ohio was #17 in the FBS on the ground. Assuming they can cobble together some healthy bodies at RB the Bobcats are going to be tough to stop when running the football. Rourke is a really dangerous runner with a knack of escaping certain doom.
UAB offense vs Ohio defense
It’s strength vs strength. The Blazers did a fine job running the football this season finishing up the regular season ranked #2 in C-USA (190/game) behind only the JUGGERNAUT FAU FIGHTING KIFFINS. True freshman RB Spencer Brown had almost 1,300 yards rushing and QB AJ Erdely bagged 13 rushing scores to go along with his 16 TD passes. They are not a great passing team and will need to establish the run to take advantage of a weak Ohio secondary. The Bobcats were rock solid vs the run AGAIN in 2017 (#11 FBS; #1 MAC 2nd straight season) and they will provide a big time challenge for UAB. The pass rush is decent but not the killer it was in 2016.
Motivation / Intangibles
Ohio – Disappointing season. Playing in the Bahamas. Against UAB. With Solich as HC (4-9 in bowl games; 2-6 at Ohio).
Grade – Poor. Potential DEBACLE.
UAB – They have risen from the ashes quicker than expected AND can be the first UAB team to win a bowl game.
Grade – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
There should not be too many points left on the table as the two PKs have combined to hit 26/32 (!!) field goals…..C-USA has rattled off four straight bowl wins after losing the first two…..CONFERENCE FADE GUY is now 0-6 .
Summary
Ohio has a fantastic QB and a great run defense. Sounds good. The downside is that you can almost always count on them to lay a big turd when you least expect it. UAB is gonna be jacked up AND they are pretty good. The spread feels a bit high but the match-up is a tough one (rushing offense vs excellent run defense).
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: UAB plus the points. Would take it as low at +6 for small potatoes. Gun to the head selection on the total would be the under 59.