2017 BIRMINGHAM BOWL – SOUTH FLORIDA vs TEXAS TECH
SOUTH FLORIDA -3 TEXAS TECH (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – South Florida -3
Sagarin ratings – South Florida -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Florida 34.75 Texas Tech 31.75
The Game
This might be fun.
Two high-scoring teams go head-to-head in Birmingham on Saturday afternoon and you just might need your calculators, yo. The Bulls sport a record of 9-2 and their only losses were tough beats vs UCF (!) and Houston. The schedule was not too tough overall BUT nine wins are nine wins are nine wins. Texas Tech slithered into bowl season with a 6-6 mark after beating rival Texas in their final game. They played a tougher schedule but it’s hard to gauge what that means when they lost 6 (!) conference games.
The Match-Up
South Florida offense vs Texas Tech defense
The Bulls will win this game if they can roll the ground attack with their usual efficiency. The Bulls were #8 in the FBS in rushing offense and they sport a devastating 3-headed monster with D Tice and D Johnson combining for over 1,600 yards rushing and 18 TDs at RB. And then there is dual-threat QB Q Flowers who is the team’s leading rusher (972, 10 TD). The Bulls are good at hitting the big play in the passing game as each of their top three WR have a TD reception of 65+ yards. The Red Raiders made nice strides on defense this season and were ranked #53 vs the run. Of course they were torched via the air attack but South Florida seems to be a decent match-up for the Red Raiders. They will not be overwhelmed by the dual-threat talent at QB after playing in the Big 12. The Bulls will get their points. We doubt they will make a mockery of the Texas Tech stop unit.
Texas Tech offense vs South Florida defense
The Bulls’ defense is ranked #28 in the FBS but they played a disgusting mess (for the most part) of a schedule in 2017. Texas Tech has one of the best (!?) defenses they have played all season and also feature one of the top offenses they have had to deal with in 2017. The passing attack is maybe a slight notch down from seasons past but QB Nic Shimonek has thrown for over 3,500 yards and bagged 30 TD passes (only 8 INT). They have enough of a 1-2 running back punch (almost 1,300 yards, 8 TDs) to keep the defense honest. It feels to us like the Red Raiders will be able to move the ball effectively, but as always, you never know when they may crap the bed. They are just so well coached. <sarcasm alert>
Motivation / Intangibles
South Florida – This is a tough read. Yippee !! We get to play a Big 12 team. Oh, wait. They are 6-6. And we didn’t hit any of our season’s goals.
Grade – Below Average to Average.
Texas Tech – Gee, Wally. This has been another crappy season for Texas Tech. The good news is that they are on a high after beating Texas AND that win got them into this game. They are playing with house money.
Grade – Slightly above average. But this is Texas Tech we are talking about.
MEGA BOWL BITES
This might be the worst coaching match-up in recent memory. The porn star Kingsbury vs how-did-this-guy-ever-get-a-HC-gig Charlie Strong. Expect a fiasco of coaching mistakes and random stupidity. Oh, did we mention that USF is ranked #128 (!!) in penalty yards per game, and Texas Tech is #124 ?
Summary
We were originally interested in South Florida but have a gut feeling that Texas Tech may actually exceed expectations for one of the few times in recent centuries. The defense is better than you think and South Florida might just MIGHT be disinterested.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Oh, boy. We are not playing this game but would lean to Texas Tech +3 if action was a necessity.