2017 CACTUS BOWL – UCLA vs KANSAS ST
KANSAS ST -6.5 UCLA (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Kansas St -7 (QB Rosen out)
Sagarin ratings – Kansas St -4 (assumed Rosen would start)
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Kansas St 33 UCLA 26.5
The Game
Well that DE-escalated quickly.
CHOSEN ROSEN. THE ROSEN ONE. He will not be playing QB for UCLA in this game. The Bruins showed some guts in the last game of the season to finish up at 6-6 and gain bowl eligibility with a win over Cal. They will play this game with an interim HC and get ready for CHIP KELLY time next season. Kansas St finished up at 7-5, and while the team and fans expected a bit more heading into 2017, they lost a couple of close games to good teams (Sooners, Longhorns). It’s time to get it on in the desert.
The Match-Up
UCLA offense vs Kansas St defense
Back-up QB Devon Modster (listed as Q; should be able to go) gets the call in this one and he looked decent in work vs Washington, Utah and Cal. Kansas St gave up a boatload of passing yards this season and the Bruins should be able to go to work with their #5 ranked passing offense. Of course there are two problems. One – how yuuuuge is the drop-off from Rosen ? It truly is anyone’s guess but we can all agree it is between yuuuuge and massive. Normally the absence of a starting QB is overrated BUT in this case it seems like UCLA is going to be a lot worse off. THE ROSEN ONE put this team on his back on more than one occasion. Two – lack of a running game. The Bruins were #116 in the FBS in rushing and Kansas St is decent in stopping the run. There is hope for UCLA due to the aforementioned Kansas St pass defense AND they were pretty miserable on 3rd downs (#95 FBS 3rd down defense).
Kansas St offense vs UCLA defense
It seems impossible that a team with a defense this statistically horrible can be in a bowl game but that is a testament to the job that CHOSEN ROSEN did at QB. The Bruins are ranked #129 (!) in the FBS in run defense (283/game) and only San Jose St allowed more (285) than UCLA did during the regular season. Kansas St appears to have finally settled on a QB and Skylar Thompson played well in their final two games over Oklahoma St and Iowa St. QB Alex Delton may not be available but he almost led the Cats to an upset win over Oklahoma (144 yards passing, 142 rushing). Kansas St has a legit #1 WR in Byron Pringle who averaged 25 (!) yards per reception whilst hauling in 28 balls. The Cats are not a prolific passing offense but should be able to take advantage of a relatively weak secondary when the Bruins are forced to put 22 guys in the box to stop the run.
Motivation / Intangibles
UCLA – Interim HC. No star QB. Hmm. Feels bad.
Grade – Poor. Potential DEBACLE.
Kansas St – Hard to say. A bit of a disappointing season but it feels like they got their mojo in November once the QB situation got sorted out. Revenge for the 2014 Alamo Bowl “No Handshake” game ?
Grade – Average to Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
HC Bill Snyder is 8-10 SU in his career in bowl games and just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 postseason clashes….With that being said this is pretty much the biggest coaching mismatch imaginable….Kansas St was +10 in turnover margin and UCLA was -9.
Summary
It’s hard to make a case for UCLA. Kansas St has the better defense and a monster edge in special teams. And Bill Snyder had a couple of weeks to figure out how to beat a team with no defense or running game. UCLA also loves to turn the ball over and take penalties. Primo recipe, yo. Laying a TD or so is the only thing given us pause.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Best play on the game ? Strong lean to Kansas St -6.5 and the team total over 33 or so for small potatoes each.