2017 NEW ORLEANS BOWL – MTSU vs ARKANSAS ST
Arkansas St -3.5 MTSU (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arkansas St -4
Sagarin ratings – Arkansas St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arkansas St 33 MTSU 29.5
The Game
It’s Camellia Bowl time, baby !
There are two exciting teams signed up for this edition and we should almost certainly see a lot of fireworks. Arkansas St finished up at 7-4 and lost their shot at being co-Champs of the Sun Belt with a tough loss to Troy in the final week of the season. MTSU has dealt with the loss of their star QB for a big chunk of the season and yet managed to rally to bowl eligibility with a final game victory over Old Dominion. They come into the contest at 6-6 and have to feel like they are playing with house money. Let’s dig in !
The Match-Up
Arkansas St offense vs MTSU defense
Long-time MEGALOCKS readers know about our fascination with this Arkansas St squad. So tempting to bet on them every week with all that talent. But they can also be very very DEADLY to the bankroll. They turned the ball over 4 (!) times in the first quarter vs South Alabama (6 overall) in an 8,000 STAR YOU SUCK MEGA HOW CAN YOU ALLOW THEM TO TURN IT OVER 6 TIMES PREMIUM RELEASE LOSER. They also manged to put up over 600 (!) yards vs Troy at home and allow less than 300 (!) yet somehow lose the game after coming away empty on seemingly 14 red zone trips. The point ? This is a high variance squad with a ton of talent but they will make you crazy with their mistakes. (We still like them…LOL)
QB Justice Hansen was the Sun Belt OPOY in 2017 and he deserved it. Hansen threw for over 3,600 yards and 34 TDs although he did toss 15 INTs. He has some sneaky mobility and can keep the odd drive alive with his feet. Warren Wand leads an “ok” ground attack and has ran for 100+ in two of his last three games. The real strength of the offense is in the variety of weapons at WR, at TE (Blake Mack – best in the Sun Belt) and dudes catching balls out of the backfield.
The Red Wolves put up over 1,300 yards in their final two games and are going to be a handful for MTSU. The good news is that the Blue Raiders have seen some good offenses this season even in a year when the conference was down just a touch. The Blue Raiders defense was ranked #30 in the FBS and #2 in C-USA in yards per play defense. Our biggest concern is a secondary that only picked off 4 (!) passes all season and was shredded to tiny little pieces by solid QB M White and WKU (almost 500 yards and 5 TD in a 3-OT loss). Arkansas St has a way of barfing all over themselves with mistakes so the best approach for MTSU will be keep everything in front of them to the extent possible and make them take their time. Hope for mistakes.
MTSU offense vs Arkansas St defense
Yes, guy. QB Brent Stockstill has returned to the lineup and helped the Blue Raiders improve down the stretch and squeak into a bowl game. The offensive line has been inconsistent, the injury to star Richie James did not help things, and as a result the offense has not been as potent as we had hoped. Stockstill’s QB rating has dropped from 151.9 in 2015 to 135.4 this season. The running game is decent and there is more than one guy they can rely upon for production. Terelle West was the latest back to do well and he reeled off 170 yards and a pair of TDs in their win over Old Dominion to close the season.
The Red Wolves have a really good front four and are going to be tough to run against. That is our big worry. Can MTSU get some kind of balance on offense ? The Red Wolves get great PENETRATION (more on that below) but Stockstill gets the ball out quick and distributes the ball well to a lot of speedy targets. Arkansas St can definitely be had in the secondary if the pass rush does not get home and more than a few SCRUBS had success vs them at various points in the season. Stockstill is going to have to carry the team on Saturday. Unlikely, but possible.
Motivation / Intangibles
Arkansas St – This team can rip your heart out. The goal is to ALWAYS win the Sun Belt and the Red Wolves are really good at doing that. Will they be motivated to go this week after finishing 3rd in the conference ?
Grade – Below average
MTSU – Oh, boy. Another one of our nemesis teams. The only thing that would make this game harder to predict is if our OTHER nemesis South Alabama were in the stands watching the action. But we digress. MTSU had a disappointing season, and while they may feel like there is new life, it is hard to imagine them getting GEEKED up for this game. And HC Rick Stockstill does not exactly get GEEKED up for much.
Grade – Below average
MEGA BOWL BITES
With one sack in this game, Arkansas St star DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones can become the ALL TIME (!!) FBS leader in career sacks. Let’s gooooooooooo !……Rolland-Jones also bagged his 2nd Sun Belt POY award in 2017……If you want to find the worst bowl game HC of all-time you may have come to the right place…..HC Stockstill is just 1-5 SU in six post-season appearances.
Summary
Arkansas St is the more talented team. The question becomes motivation and the mind-boggling sloppiness of the Red Wolves AND what impact that has on the outcome. We would have been a lot more interested if the line was in the -2.5/-3 range. Then again, maybe that is a good thing ?
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Arkansas TT over 33 for small potatoes. We would play up to 34.