2017 CITRUS BOWL – NOTRE DAME vs LSU
LSU -3 NOTRE DAME (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -4
Sagarin ratings – Notre Dame -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 27.25 Notre Dame 24.25
The Game
We have a really fun Citrus Bowl match-up to look forward to on New Year’s Day as LSU battles Notre Dame. The teams have combined for an 18-6 record so far this season and bring a lot of exciting offensive players into the game. LSU won 6 of their last 7 contests (ROLL TIDE) after the Troy DEBACLE and are RIGHT NOW definitely a top 15 team in our estimation. Notre Dame played a REALLY tough schedule (2nd toughest according to the Sagarin ratings) and only lost to Miami (away), Stanford (away) and Georgia (home; one point). Who gets to 10 wins ?
The Match-Up
LSU offense vs Notre Dame defense
Run the ball. Take care of it in the passing game. The recipe has worked pretty well this season. Star RB Darrius Guice will go in this one and he finished up with over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs despite missing time with injuries. QB Danny Etling is not flashy but he only threw 2 (!) INTs in 242 attempts during the regular season. WR DJ Chark is a legit HOME RUN HITTER averaging over 23 yards per reception (811), but overall, LSU lacks diversity when attempting to MATRICULATE in the passing game. Notre Dame is good on defense but not great (#44 FBS total defense) and they do not get a lot of PENETRATION. We expect LSU to play this one straight up and force Notre Dame to stop their bread and butter.
Notre Dame offense vs LSU defense
Yes, we know that QB Brandon Wimbush struggles MATRICULATING in the passing game (49.8% completions), but the running game is really dangerous even with the recent “departures” (academics, rules violations, academic fraud, etc…) that have hurt their depth at the position. Wimbush is an electric runner when allowed to get to the 2nd level and beyond. RB Josh Adams is fantastic (1,386, 7.3, 9 TD) and can take it to the HIZZY JIZZY MCHIZZY HOUSE YO on any given play. The options in the passing game have also been limited by “departures” (academics, rules violations, academic fraud, etc…) but WR E St Brown is a legit #1 target who has been stymied by the lack of accuracy at the QB position. It is not impossible to think that the bowl practices may do the passing game some good BUT they will need to get that running game rolling. LSU finished the season ranked #28 vs run BUT given the SIGNIFICANT depletion at the LB position due to “departures” (academics, rules violations, academic fraud, etc…) it is definitely possible that the Irish get the run game going, or at a minimum hit some big plays.
Motivation / Intangibles
LSU – It’s not hard to get up to play Notre Dame. HC Orgeron will not let these guys come out flat. At least that is our theory.
Grade – Above Average.
Notre Dame – Tough call. Brian Kelly is a bowl game ATS STIFF similar to your motorcycle-mama-banging pal Petrino and cannot be trusted on most occasions in the post season. The program is in a bit of a mess and the end of season tailspin is a bit worrisome.
Grade – Poor.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The last time Notre Dame won a bowl game vs an opponent of decent quality was way back in 1994 when they slithered past the Texas A&M Aggies 24-21 in the Cotton Bowl……Brian Kelly is 2-7 ATS in bowl games.
Summary
We lean to LSU but have no idea how the new LB group will do against a REALLY good offensive line and rushing attack. Hard for us to make a full recommendation. Godspeed.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game ? LSU -3 for small potatoes.