2017 CURE BOWL – WESTERN KENTUCKY vs GEORGIA ST
WESTERN KENTUCKY 6.5 GEORGIA ST (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Western Kentucky -5
Sagarin ratings – Western Kentucky -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Western Kentucky 29 Georgia St 22.5
The Game
It’s GO TIME, baby !
If there is one person we dislike more than TAKE OFF SHOES ON THE PLANE GUY it just might be TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY. We will save the rant for a blog post at some point, but to summarize, college football is awesome and if you don’t wanna watch this game then don’t watch. It’s a surprisingly difficult concept for many so-called adults to understand. But we digress.
The Panthers come into this game on a two-game skid including the last game of the season DEBACLE (a 70,000 star MEGALOCKS YOU STINK LATE PHONE RELEASE LOSER) when they turned the ball over on every 2nd possession and attempted 14 trick plays whilst allowing a 400-pound freshman QB to dice them up. But we digress again. They are 6-5 and looking to win their FIRST bowl game. That may not seem like a big deal to TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY but we are excited to see if they can pull it off and become “the team” for life. They do not have any quality wins on the docket (ULM ? South Alabama ?) but we expect their best effort on Saturday.
The Toppers have had a disappointing season, but to be fair, they have been good for a pretty long time. In fact you need to go back to 2010 to find their last losing season AND they have won bowl games in three consecutive seasons. There has been a drop-off under HC Sanford after the departure of Jeff Brohm but the Toppers can bag another winning record with a win on Saturday.
The Match-Up
Western Kentucky offense vs Georgia St defense
It’s no secret. The Toppers are going to come at you with the passing game and their excellent QB Mike White. The running game is pretty much non-existent (#129 FBS) and their leading rusher has just 362 yards. White finished the season with 7 (!) consecutive 300-yard+ passing games and should have no problem putting up 300+ yards on the Panthers. He spreads the ball around nicely and Georgia St has not shown the ability to get much PENETRATION other than in a few games. Luckily for them, the WK offensive line is somehow bad at pass protection despite all the repetitions they get so the Panthers can definitely cause some problems as Mr White does not have much mobility. The Panthers were ranked #7 in the Belt (#97 FBS) in pass efficiency defense and will be put to the test on Saturday.
Georgia St offense vs Western Kentucky defense
The Panthers have similar troubles getting balance on offense. The running game has been a no-show for much of the season with their leading rusher (Glenn Smith) gaining just over 500 yards on the ground, although to be fair, he also had 43 receptions. Their biggest weapon is WR Penny Hart who has been dealing with injuries this season but he still managed to record 1,094 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Hart is listed as probable this week and we worry a bit about his production during the latter part of the campaign. He only has one 100-yard receiving game since Oct 14 and did not have a TD in the team’s last three contests. Senior QB Conner Manning is a decent game manager and can get hot but he will need Penny Hart to have a big game if they are to pull the upset. WK does not get much PENETRATION but have only allowed just 10 (!) TD passes all season which ranks them T7 in the FBS.
Motivation / Intangibles
Western Kentucky – This is one of those theoretically horrible spots where a team can just lie down and die. The Toppers had a disappointing campaign and it’s unclear how they manage to get up to play a mid-pack Sun Belt team in the Cure Bowl.
Grade – Poor, bordering on potential debacle.
Georgia St – This is as good as it gets. The Panthers are trying to win their first ever bowl game.
Grade – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
As noted earlier the Toppers have won bowl games in three consecutive seasons and look to register a FOUR-BAGGER on Saturday……..Georgia St has not beat a MURDERERS ROW of opponents this year but Western Kentucky can only boast wins over E Kentucky, Ball St, Old Dominion, UTEP, Charlotte and MTSU.
Summary
We can see both sides of this handicap. Western Kentucky has the best player on the field (QB) and the better defense (marginally) AND they have played the tougher schedule. We had a feeling they would have a down season (congrats MEGALOCKS Florida Atlantic +2000 futures backers) but they can still achieve a winning season with a win on Saturday. Georgia St ? Well they have a huge motivational edge and a senior QB. The defense is good enough.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Under 51.5. Wait for the +7 on Georgia St if you can get it on game day. Otherwise play down to +6. Small potatoes only on each.