2017 FIESTA BOWL BOWL – PENN ST vs WASHINGTON
PENN ST -2 WASHINGTON (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -4
Sagarin ratings – Penn St -4.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 28.5 Washington 26.5
The Game
It’s a fantastic FIESTA BOWL SHOWDOWN as Penn St battles Washington on Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions rattled off a 10-2 record and came really close to running the table. They lost to Ohio St and Michigan St by a combined 4 (!) points. Washington had the PAC 12 Championship in their sights when the season started but did not even make the title game. They also finished up with a 10-2 mark and have a chance to make a big statement on a BIG stage. Let’s goooooooooooooo !
The Match-Up
Penn St offense vs Washington defense
The Nittany Lions have a really balanced attack and will face a stern challenge on Saturday. They boast two of the best players in college football in QB Trace McSorley (3,228, 26-8 TD to INT; 11 rushing TDs) and RB Saquon Barkley (1,134 rushing yards, 16 TD; 47 receptions). They also have a solid WR group and deadly receiving TE in Mike Gesicki (9 TDs). Four players have 500+ receiving yards. The big issue has been the offensive line. They were dead LAST in the Big 10 in TFL allowed per game and Barkley was really bottled up when facing elite defenses. Washington may fall into that category (competition ?) as they are the #1 (!) run defense in the FBS and #5 defense overall. The Huskies can BRING THE HEAT (38 sacks) and Penn St will have to establish the run and stay out of 3rd and long. This is close to as good as it gets. An offense with all kinds of weapons and Mayfield Jr at QB going up against a rock solid stop unit.
Washington offense vs Penn St defense
The Huskies are not as deep on offense but they still have the necessary TRILOGY to make things work. QB Jake Browning is smart and accurate (69% completions; 5 INT), Myles Gaskin is a true #1 RB (1,282 rushing yards, 19 TD) and Dante Pettis had over 700 yards receiving. Penn St also boasts a solid defense (#7 scoring FBS) that can get PENETRATION (38 sacks) and make stops on 3rd downs. A yuuuuge key to this game is the ability of Washington to run the football on the #15 rushing defense. Penn St has the ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game if the run game is not working. The Huskies will need Gaskin to keep the chains moving and give Browning time to hit plays downfield.
Motivation / Intangibles
Penn St – That was a tough loss in the Rose Bowl last season. They should be jacked up to win on a big stage against a 10-win team. Barkley decided to play in this game and that has to give the troops a boost.
Grade – Above Average.
Washington – The Huskies had bigger plans for this season. It is a similar situation to Penn St although we do feel that the Nittany Lions had a bit of an excuse (Ohio St, Michigan St, Michigan) whereas the Huskies really had NONE.
Grade – Below Average to Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Meaningless and quirky stat….Penn St is 6-0 at the Fiesta Bowl……We have to give the HC edge to Peterson although he is just 1-2 in three bowl games with the Huskies…….Franklin is 1-2 with Penn St……Both guys need a big time win and this game would at least somewhat qualify in that regard…..PR Dante Pettis is a punt returning FREAK (4 !!! TDs) and there should REALLY be concerns about Franklin’s game plan if they do not take extra care when punting the ball.
Summary
We are going to roll with the team that faced three REALLY good defenses (Ohio St, Michigan, Sparty) and managed to score 38,24 and 41 points). We prefer the variety of weapons on the Penn St side and the mobility at QB. We are also skeptical of the schedule that Washington faced and are particularly concerned given the way the PAC 12 has crapped the bed in bowl games so far (UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Washington St….But hey, Utah beat West Virginia without their starting QB). The Big 10 has looked good so far (Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, Northwestern (in progess ?). That may mean nothing. It may mean something. Penn St just needs to avoid a lot of negative plays to win this game by 7+.
Conclusion
Official play: Penn St -2 -107 (sent 6:02 pm EST Dec 29) (play up to -3)