2017 FOSTER FARMS BOWL – ARIZONA vs PURDUE
ARIZONA -3.5 PURDUE (65.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arizona -3
Sagarin ratings – Purdue -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arizona 34.5 Purdue 31
The Game
We have an interesting PAC 12 vs Big 10 match-up in this one as Purdue battles Arizona in the good old Foster Farms Bowl. The Wildcats rode their emerging superstar QB and devastating rushing attack to a 7-5 campaign. They struggled down the stretch losing three of their last four games and their best win was probably a spanking of Washington St. First year HC Jeff Brohm did a wonderful job in his first season at Purdue getting them to a bowl game after five consecutive losing seasons. They are 6-6 and would love to bag a win in this one to claim a winning 2017 and grab momentum for 2018.
The Match-Up
Arizona offense vs Purdue defense
QB Khalil Tate is one of the most exciting players in college football and is must-see TV. In about three quarters of a season Tate rushed for 1,353 yards (!) and 12 TDs at an impossible 10 yards per carry. He roasted Colorado for 327 (!) yards rushing on just 14 carries and followed that up with 230 vs UCLA. He completed 61% of his passes with a 9-8 TD to INT ratio. The Wildcats RB group is deep and talented and led the way for the #3 rushing offense in the FBS. It’s a relentless barrage of running and timely hits in the passing game. Purdue’s defense was sneaky good this year (#48 FBS, #29 vs the run) and they only allowed 200 yards rushing on two occasions (Badgers, Gophers). This is going to be a fun match-up. Arizona likes to turn the ball over (20) and the recipe will be to stop them from going nuts with the run and force some turnovers. The #16 scoring defense in the FBS has found a way to stop teams from getting into the endzone but this is a stern challenge.
Purdue offense vs Arizona defense
The Boilers suffered a tough loss when QB David Blough was lost for the season due to injury. The good news is that Elijah Sindelar led the team to a pair of wins to end the season (Iowa, Indiana) whilst throwing for 5 TDs and zero INTs. The offense does not blow you away (no 500 yard RB; no 600 yard receiver) but the good news is that the Arizona defense is borderline horrible. They are ranked #116 in the FBS in total defense and are equally poor at stopping the run and the pass. They are also one of the worst defenses on 3rd downs (#121 FBS). They are adept at forcing turnovers (24) and we do not fully trust the Purdue QB to have a clean game. If the Cats can bag a couple of turnovers and turn them into points it is going to be really hard for Purdue to win this game.
Motivation / Intangibles
Arizona – They missed out on a bowl game last year. Rich Rod is 3-1 in bowl games with the Cats.
Grade – Average to Above Average.
Purdue – The Boilermakers have not appeared in a bowl game since the 2012 massacre at the hands of Oklahoma St in the 2012 Heart of Dallas Bowl. HC Brohm was 2-0 in bowl games with Western Kentucky.
Grade – Average to Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Purdue has not allowed 30 points since their week one loss to Louisville and all-world QB Lamar Jackson……Arizona has scored 40+ on seven different occasions.
Summary
It’s a tough call. Purdue has been really scrappy on defense but it’s hard to know how well they will stack up vs the (almost) unstoppable Arizona rushing attack. We would feel better catching closer to a TD. Arizona ? Such a bad defense. They turn the ball over and take lots of penalties. Yuck.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Arizona team total over.
Dude. You playing this game for small potatoes, yo ? No.