2017 FRISCO BOWL – LOUISIANA TECH vs SMU
SMU -4 LOUISIANA TECH (70)
MEGALOCKS LINE – SMU -2
Sagarin ratings – SMU -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: SMU 37 Louisiana Tech 33
The Game
It’s FRISCO time, baby.
There promises to be a bunch of points scored on Wednesday night as SMU battles Louisiana Tech in the inaugural Frisco Bowl. For those who were wondering where the Miami Beach Bowl went – here is your answer.
The Mustangs made fine strides this season but struggled down the stretch losing three of their final four games. Rising STAR Head Coach Chad Morris left for Arkansas and new head man Sonny Dykes has already jumped aboard. Thankfully, the Mustangs should remember how to score points, but the defense has been a bit of a debacle.
Louisiana Tech squeaked into the post-season with a 6-6 record and won their final two games. They were a virtual HEARTBREAK HOTEL during the campaign losing three games by a single point. Can they bag a win to get the momentum rolling for 2018 ? Let’s dig in.
The Match-Up
SMU offense vs Louisiana Tech defense
The Mustangs were pretty scary on offense this season and they were REALLY balanced. They finished up the season ranked #44 in the FBS in rushing and #16 in passing. They feature a 3,000 yard QB (Ben Hicks), a 1,000 yard RB (Xavier Jones) and TWO 1,000 yard WRs (Trey Quinn, Courtland Sutton). Louisiana Tech finished up #65 in total defense and did a good job against some good offenses like W Kentucky (22), S Carolina (17 – before their injury woes), UAB (23 – don’t laugh), and North Texas (24). They are well coached and experienced AND have a knack for making the big play (16 INTs). Their defense was ranked #12 in the FBS in the red zone. There is no doubt that SMU gets some points but it’s hard to see them go bananas on this defense. Let’s call it low 30s.
Louisiana Tech offense vs SMU defense
We knew the Bulldogs would take a step down this season after losing a PAIR (!) of 1,500+ (!) yard receivers and a 4600-yard QB. They held their own this season finishing up #5 in C-USA in yards per play and were balanced (#54 rushing, #64 passing). QB J’Mar Smith is not a polished passer by any means but he is improving (13-5 TD to INT ratio) and has some good mobility (5 rushing TDs) and threw those 5 picks in 386 (!) attempts. The running game has a great 1-2 punch in Boston Scott (937 yards; 272 last two games) and J Craft (1,000-yards last season; one carry last three games due to injury; now healthy) which gets to go up against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the SMU defense. They were ranked #121 (!) in total defense this season and #112 vs the run allowing over 5 yards per carry. The pass defense was brutal as well finishing up #116 in pass efficiency defense, and whilst La Tech is not explosive in the passing game, they have enough weapons to make you respect the possibility of MATRICULATION (Teddy Veal 832 yards). You need multiple fingers to count the number of times SMU yielded 600 yards of offense. Rock solid CB Jordan Wyatt had TWO pick 6s but will miss this contest. Leading tackler Mikial Onu is Q. It feels like La Tech will be able to do whatever they want if they do not barf all over themselves with turnovers.
Motivation / Intangibles
SMU – It’s a tricky read with the “recently announced head coach scenario”. We totally blew the call on Oregon (although we are JACKED for next season LOL) but think that SMU is going to be hard pressed to have anything more than an average performance given some of the negativity displayed with the recent upheaval. Next season ? Fine. This game ? Neutral or negative. The good news is that they have not been to a bowl game in a while and that was the goal before the season began.
Grade – Below average to Average.
Louisiana Tech – There were a LOT of strange and close losses so they have to feel like they are playing with HOUSE MONEY. We are big fans of HC Holtz (3-0 bowl games with LT) and think they have the coaching edge for this game.
Grade – Average to Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
As noted above HC Holtz has done a fine job in bowl games so far, and overall, his ATS record with the Bulldogs has been excellent….C-USA was not as much of a horror show as you may think….MTSU and Marshall both looked good in their bowl appearances….North Texas and WKU not so much….Both teams have been opportunistic this season finishing a combined +17 in turnover margin (LT +7; SMU +10).
Summary
It seems like a good spot for LT. The SMU defense is an absolute disgusting mess and it feels like the Bulldogs should be able to take advantage. Give the coaching edge to Louisiana Tech. If either team implodes we feel it will be SMU. Then again, we liked Oregon.
Conclusion
Official play: Louisiana Tech +4 -105.