2017 HOLIDAY BOWL – MICHIGAN ST vs WASHINGTON ST
WASHINGTON ST -2.5 MICHIGAN ST (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan St -1
Sagarin ratings – Michigan St -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington St 24 Michigan St 21.5
The Game
This should be a good one, yo.
A pair of 9-3 teams from BIG BOY conferences hook up in this year’s Holiday Bowl. Michigan St has bagged wins over Penn St, Michigan and Iowa but got their teeth kicked in vs Ohio St by a score of 48-3 (a 77 STAR MEGALOCKS I HATE YOU IT WASN’T EVEN CLOSE YOU STUPID HACK LATE PHONE RELEASE LOSER). We need to keep in mind that Michigan St is coming off a putrid 3-9 (!) season and have the chance to make it four 10-win seasons in the last five years with a win over the PIRATE and Washington St.
Much like the Spartans, the Cougars did some fine things this season, and they managed to beat USC, Stanford , Utah and Boise St. They still fell short of a division crown but can achieve their first 10-win season in seemingly centuries with a win over the scrappy Spartans.
Let’s goooo !
The Match-Up
Washington St offense vs Michigan St defense
Time to let it rip. QB Luke Falk was a bit inconsistent this season but still managed to complete two-thirds of his passes and fire off 30 TDs (13 INT). The Cougs will be without their top-2 (!) WR for this game as both have left the team. They have depth in the group but it probably cannot be a good thing to be without your two most productive receivers (combined for 14/35 of teams TD receptions). The running game is pretty much non-existent (#128 FBS) and they were also dead last in the PAC 12 in sacks per game allowed. Falk is a fine QB but has the mobility of a glacier. They have to get the ball out quick to their talented guys IN SPACE and let the big plays happen. Michigan St’s defense is very good (#9 FBS, #5 vs run, #13 pass efficiency defense) but they can absolutely be roasted down the field if they do not get pressure on the QB. Northwestern and Penn St totaled almost 800 yards passing combined in back-to-back games earlier in the season. The Michigan St run D has been really good against all but elite rushing teams (read: Ohio St, Notre Dame) and it feels as though Washington St will need a premium day from Falk to win this affair.
Michigan St offense vs Washington St defense
We are still fans of QB Brian Lewerke and he has an underrated group of WRs with which to MATRICULATE in the passing game. He also has some good mobility (#2 team in rushing; 5 rushing TDs) which is handy for keeping drives alive. Lewerke makes mistakes and has issues with accuracy sometimes (and TUCK the ball away DUDE when running) but he is more than capable of having a good game against a tough defense. The running game has been a bit of a disappointment but LJ Scott can do some damage if he gets going early in the contest. Washington St was very good against the pass and decent enough vs the run this year although they did allow 23 rushing TDs. The Spartans should be able to have a balanced attack BUT the Cougs finished up #1 (!) in the FBS in 3rd down defense. Sparty has to figure out a way to consistently win 1st and 2nd down. It will help that Cougs’ star DL HERCULES Mata’afa is suspended for the first half due to a targeting violation.
Motivation / Intangibles
Washington St – We are not crazy about the spot. They are off another disappointing loss in the Apple Cup and the vibe around the program is not at a high point right now. However, a 10-win season is definitely worth fighting for on December 28th.
Grade – Below average.
Michigan St – It feels like the Spartans are playing with house money. Their goal this season was to re-establish the program, and make no mistake, it would be mission accomplished if they could record their 10th win and add another solid victory to the resume.
Grade – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Mike Leach and Mark Dantonio have a combined 11-11 record in bowl games…..Leach 6-6….Dantonio 5-5…..Washington St played a shell of a Minnesota team last year and lost the game 17-12 as 10-point favorites…..The last meeting between these two teams was back in 1977.
Summary
It feels like the better team is getting a few points. Both defenses are good enough to win games by themselves but we prefer the balance on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan St. We also give the edge in the HC department to Dantonio. He is even better when playing the underdog card.
Conclusion
Official play: Michigan St +2.5 -110 (Play down to pick em) (sent out 5:41pm EST Dec 18)