2017 INDEPENDENCE BOWL – FLORIDA ST vs SOUTHERN MISS
FLORIDA ST -16.5 SOUTHERN MISS (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -14
Sagarin ratings – Florida St -19
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 32.75 Southern Miss 16.25
The Game
They did it. 36 (!) consecutive bowl games for the Seminoles and that is a testament to how long the football program has been REALLY REALLY good. It took a three-game winning streak to end the season but here they are yet again with a record of 6-6. The Golden Eagles had a good regular season with a mark of 8-4 BUT they can’t help but think what might have been. They got blown out by North Texas at home (a 777 STAR MEGALOCKS YOU IDIOT I PAY FOR THIS CRAP NICKEL BOMB loser) and probably had the talent to win the C-USA West. Now they get a chance to SHOCK the WORLD as yuuuuuuge underdogs. Let’s goooooooooooo !
The Match-Up
Florida St offense vs Southern Miss defense
Freshman QB James Blackman gets props from us after filling in for starting QB Deondre Francois who was injured late in the season opener. He took a lot of yuuuuge hits and just kept getting up off the field. Even we needed an ice bath after the game vs BC (10,000 STAR EXTRA JUICY LATE PHONE RELEASE winner). Blackmon finished up with a 15-11 TD to INT ratio playing a tough schedule and completed 57% of his passes. The strength of the offense is the running game which features a fine 1-2 punch of Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick (1,600 rushing yards, 13 TDs). The WR group is probably a bit underrated given the inexperience at QB and TE Ryan Izzo is almost certain to somehow be wide open on at least 12 plays in this game. The big weakness has been the offensive line (#13 ACC sacks allowed; #14 TFL allowed; therefore, #106 offense FBS) and they will have to be aware of the Golden Eagles’ ability to get PENETRATION (#1 C-USA TFL/game; #11 FBS). The Southern Miss defense was pretty solid in 2017 and they finished the regular season ranked #17 in total defense, #27 vs the run and #18 in pass efficiency defense (51.4% completions allowed). The easy schedule helped but there is no doubt they have talent on that stop unit. We can see Florida St getting into the 20s but the 30s may be a stretch.
Southern Miss offense vs Florida St defense
QB Kwadra Griggs started to get better as the season went along and he has not thrown an INT since October. Griggs finished up with a 15-2 TD to INT ratio and takes good care of the football. RB Ito Smith is a MEGALOCKS favorite and will be playing in his final college game. Smith had 1,300 yards rushing and 13 TDs whilst catching 36 balls out of the backfield. The WR group is solid and boasts a 1,000-yard man in Korey Robertson. Florida St is without a LOT of KEY starters on defense due to “NFL draft prep” and they are definitely going to miss those stars including S Derwin James. It’s really hard to judge (similar to Texas) how this defense is going to play without so many regulars in the lineup. We do know that they finished the regular season ranked #25 on defense whilst playing a really tough schedule. The key will be limiting Ito Smith (rushing and receiving) and trying to make other guys beat them.
Motivation / Intangibles
Florida St – Almost every game is a “questionable motivational spot” for these guys. It seems impossible to think they can be motivated to play a C-USA team especially after so many guys said “So long, yo. Have fun”. They will play the game with an interim HC.
Grade – Poor. Potential DEBACLE.
Southern Miss – Up against an ACC team. Huge underdogs. HC Hopson bagged a win in last year’s New Orleans Bowl.
Grade – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Willie Taggart is taking over the Florida St HC duties next season and will be keeping a close eye on the young players…..Southern Miss is ranked near the bottom of the FBS in penalties per game and cannot afford to give Florida St many “redos” or free yards……Florida St was outscored 201-156 in ACC play……The Golden Eagles played ACC member NC State in the 1990 All-American bowl with a QB named Brett Favre…..The MEGALOCKS posse was there…..Amazing factoid, yo.
Summary
This feels like Southern Miss or nothing. The motivation edge is as big as it gets and the Golden Eagles definitely have talent. We worry about them holding up against the Florida St ground game and they need to stay close early and not fall behind by double digits.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Southern Miss team total over 16.5. Small to medium potatoes.