2017 LIBERTY BOWL – IOWA ST vs MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS -4 IOWA ST (67)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Memphis -1
Sagarin ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Memphis 35.5 Iowa St 31.5
The Game
The explosive Memphis Tigers get a shot to knock off a Big 12 team in their home city as they take on Iowa St. The Tigers had a fine regular season finishing up at 10-2 with their only two defeats coming at the hands of UCF. Iowa St was one of the great stories of the season staying in the Big 12 hunt for a LONG time whilst bagging a road win over Oklahoma. The Cyclones lost three of their last four down the stretch. Can they get their mojo back ?
The Match-Up
Memphis offense vs Iowa St defense
The Memphis offense is an absolute treat to watch and is led by outstanding QB Riley Ferguson who has thrown for almost 4,000 yards and 36 TDs already this season. The running game can also tear you to shreds with D Henderson (8.9 a pop) and P Taylor Jr combining for almost 2,000 yards and 22 TDs on the ground. Senior WR Miller is one of the best offensive players in college football (92, 1407, 17 TDs) and is surely NFL-bound. The Tigers do a good job of limiting negative plays and Iowa St is only #99 in the FBS in sacks per game. The Cyclones are also #101 in pass efficiency defense. They played in the Big 12 BUT Memphis is as good as anything you will see in the Big 12 (offensively) other than the Sooners. Iowa St will have to bag some turnovers (#12 turnover margin FBS) and do better on 3rd down defense (#88) to stay in this game.
Iowa St offense vs Memphis defense
The Cyclones QBs were dropping like flies but it did not stop them from winning games and putting up points. QB Kyle Kempt has been rock solid completing 67% of his passes with a fine 13-3 TD to INT ratio. The Cyclones feature a TALL and talented receiving group that is sure to give Memphis fits. They spread the ball around nicely but the leader is 17th year senior Allen Lazard who is tops on the squad with 61 receptions and 799 yards. The real treat in this offense is watching RB David Montgomery who runs like every play is his last. He has over 1,000 yards on the ground and is going to be a big factor in this one going up against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Memphis defense. The Tigers also boast a solid turnover margin and were #23 in the FBS in TFL. The Cyclones will make some big plays and get lots of yards but the Tigers will do what they do. Make more stops than the other guy. Score more points. Win game.
Motivation / Intangibles
Memphis – Mixed bag. They might be a bit down after losing a close one in the AAC Championship game but they are playing in Memphis AND get to take on a Power 5 team.
Grade – Average to Above Average.
Iowa St – Bowl games are a big deal. They are 3-9 all-time in bowl games but HC Campbell has these guys on the right track. We can’t see them laying an egg.
Grade – Average to Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
It’s our last chance to see all-EVERYTHING senior LB/QB/Leader Joel Lanning……He is a great hard core old school player…..The weather is cold and crisp with a bit of wind but no participation in the forecast according to our WEATHER INSIDERS.
Summary
This should be one of the better bowl games so far ! Two exciting offenses with lots of weapons. Two rising stars at HC. We can see it going either way. Slight leanage to the dog based on strength of schedule.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Iowa St plus the points for small potatoes. Seeing +3.5 and +4 as we go to press.