2017 MILITARY BOWL – VIRGINIA vs NAVY
NAVY -1.5 VIRGINIA (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Virginia -1
Sagarin ratings – Navy -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Navy 27 Virginia 25.5
The Game
This is an interesting way to kick off the day as Navy takes on Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy struggled down the stretch losing six of their final seven games including a loss to their bitter rival, Army. The Middies sit at 6-6 and would love to finish the season on a strong note and achieve a winning record. The Cavs were also in a bit of a funk late in the year losing five of their last six games. They also ended up with a mark of 6-6. It’s a big game. Loser is officially a LOSER (6-7 record). Let’s gooooooo !
The Match-Up
Navy offense vs Virginia defense
Navy has TWO (!) QBs with over 1,000 yards rushing. Starting QB Zach Abey has been battling injuries for a good portion of the season but has still dialed up over 1,300 yards on the ground. Backup QB Malcolm Perry is an absolute HOME RUN HITTER rushing for over 1,000 yards at 8.8 yards a pop. Virginia will have to prepare for the crafty Abey and the explosive Perry. The Navy run game finished up #2 in the FBS but they are down just a notch in terms of explosiveness from players other than the QBs. They only scored 17,14 and 13 in their final three contests, and over the season, were a disappointing #68 in red zone offense and just #25 in 3rd down conversions. Virginia ranked a poor #82 in the FBS in run defense this season but they did a nice job with the GT option in a win earlier this season. There is no passing game to worry about ALTHOUGH they will try for the odd big play (unlike Army). Three different players have receptions of 50+ yards. Overall, we like the success that HC Mendenhall has displayed over his career playing against the option (Air Force) (GT this season) but defending two radically different but equally devastating running QBs will be a bit of a challenge.
Virginia offense vs Navy defense
Virginia has not displayed much of a rushing attack this season (#125 rushing FBS) but QB Kurt Benkert has been solid finishing the regular season with over 3,000 yards and 25 TD passes. The Zaccheaus/Levrone/Dowling trilogy at WR each had 600+ yards receiving and combined for 17 TD receptions. Overall, nine different players caught a TD pass this year. Navy’s defense has struggled all season getting off the field (#101 3rd downs) and are a disappointing #124 in pass efficiency defense. The best defense is TRULY going to be the offense in this game. Virginia has the potential to get into the mid 30s or higher if Navy cannot control the clock with their offense. We expect a big game from Benkert who does not figure to have much dirt on his jersey when the game is complete.
Motivation / Intangibles
Navy – It’s Navy. ‘Nuff said. They also get the game at home where they have won 16 of their last 18 games straight up.
Grade – Above Average.
Virginia – The Cavs have not been in a bowl game since 2011 and their last postseason victory came back in 2005. It’s a big game for the Virginia to continue the momentum they are quietly building. And as noted earlier, their HC has seen a LOT of option football. Of course, it will be the players doing the tackling.
Grade – Above Average to Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
MEGALOCKS interns (yes, they are hot. is that wrong ?) are busily scrambling to determine if there has ever been a bowl match-up where the teams combined to end the season on such magical runs (2 wins, 11 losses combined).
Summary
Tough game to read. Would feel comfortable taking either team at +3 or +3.5 but the spread looks about right to us. Virginia will be able to fire away. Navy will try and do what Army did to San Diego St and hold the ball for 59 minutes.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Over 52.5
Dude, are you like, playing the game at all ? Like, even for small potatoes ? No.