2017 MUSIC CITY BOWL – KENTUCKY vs NORTHWESTERN
NORTHWESTERN -7.5 KENTUCKY (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northwestern -8
Sagarin ratings – Northwestern -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Northwestern 29.25 Kentucky 21.75
The Game
Welcome to Music City, baby !
The red-hot Northwestern Wildcats bring their seven game winning streak to town and battle the Kentucky Wildcats on Friday afternoon in Nashville. Northwestern finished 2nd in the Big 10 West behind Wisconsin and can get to 10 wins for the 2nd time in three seasons with a victory in this game. Kentucky had a decent 7-5 regular season but struggled down the stretch losing their last two games in blowout fashion (Georgia, Louisville). Can they pull it together for the bowl game ?
The Match-Up
Northwestern offense vs Kentucky defense
We get one last chance to see underrated RB Justin Jackson do his thing at Northwestern. Jackson tallied another 1,000-yard rushing campaign (1,154, 9 TD) and finished strong picking up 154,166 and 144 yards on the ground in three of his last four games. The Cats do not stretch the field in the passing game and QB Clayton Thorson struggled a bit this season without a true #1 target (15-12 TD to INT). Their bread and butter is pounding the run and moving the chains with the annoying short passing attack. They were poor on 3rd down conversions (#98 FBS) and Kentucky will have chances to get off the field but need to do a LOT better than the regular season (#86 3rd down defense). The Cats struggle at times keeping Thorson clean but the Kentucky Wildcats are not a strong pass rushing squad. It seems that Northwestern has enough in the bag to win this game rather easily if they don’t barf all over themselves with turnovers. Jackson should have a big day vs the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Kentucky stop unit.
Kentucky offense vs Northwestern defense
The Cats have the most lethal offensive star in this game in RB Benny Snell who tallied an impressive 18 (!) rushing scores and 1,318 yards on the ground. QB Steven Jackson does not have many weapons to work with in the passing game but he only threw 4 INT in 280 attempts whilst rushing for 358 yards. He manages the game and does a decent job of moving the chains. The loss of stud TE CJ Conrad is a blow and they only have one player with more than 300 yards receiving (G Johnson – 500). The big problem we foresee for the Cats is the match-up with the stingy Northwestern run defense which is excellent. If they cannot establish some kind of running game is may be hard for them to even get to 14 points in this contest. They are going to have to try and take some deep shots to loosen up the Cats defense but we are not sure they can be successful with those gambles.
Motivation / Intangibles
Northwestern – They definitely want to get to 10 wins but this is not exactly the kind of opponent that will get their blood boiling.
Grade – Average.
Kentucky – They can play the underdog card and ANY bowl victory is a big deal.
Grade – Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The two head coaches in this game have combined for a less-than stellar 2-6 record in bowl games (Fitzgerald 2-5, Stoops 0-1)…..Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson is coming back for his senior season and Cats’ fans have reason to be excited.
Summary
It’s really tough to make a case for Kentucky. The run game needs to work and Northwestern’s run defense has been really stingy. We would have liked to see the line below a TD.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Kentucky team total under 21.5 for small potatoes.