2017 NEW MEXICO BOWL – MARSHALL vs COLORADO ST
COLORADO ST -5.5 MARSHALL (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado St -4 Sagarin ratings – Colorado St -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado St 31.75 Marshall 26.25
The Game
It’s time to get the family to Albuquerque, yo !
A pair of 7-5 teams square off in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday in what promises to be an interesting and competitive game. The Rams’ season has to be considered a disappointment as they were thought to be BIG TIME contendaaaas for the Mountain West crown but fizzled down the stretch against the tougher opponents in the conference. Marshall played pretty consistently all season but found a way to lose a lot of REALLY close games in C-USA play. In fact, their four conference losses were by a combined 19 points.
The Match-Up
Colorado St offense vs Marshall defense
The Rams feature a 3,000 yard passer, a 1,200 yard running back and a 1,200 yard receiver. Who else can say that ? Oklahoma St. Amaze your parole officer with that gem.
QB Nick Stevens threw for almost 3,500 yards this season with a 27-10 TD to INT ratio. He has excellent chemistry with one of THE best WRs in college football in Michael Gallup (94-1,345 7 TD) but spreads the ball around nicely. It helps that the Rams have one of the most potent AND balanced offenses in the FBS and RB Dalyn Dawkins has bagged 1,349 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. They also have nice depth at the RB position and a reliable TE (D Fackrell – 6 TD) for times when they get bored shredding teams with the traditional RB and WR weapons. They have been excellent on 3rd downs (#2 FBS !) converting over 50% of the time. Think you can get to the QB ? They have only allowed 8 sacks all season (T2 FBS sacks per game allowed). The talent is here BUT they have been inconsistent in many of their contests during 2017.
The good news for the Herd is that their defense is really good. They had the #1 run defense in C-USA (allowed under 200 yards rushing to FAU on the road which is GOOD) and were ranked #3 in the conference in yards per play. While it is true that C-USA had a bit of a down year, they played decent enough against some pretty talented offenses. Marshall is ranked #6 in the FBS in red zone defense and #38 on 3rd downs. They were only #4 in the conference in sacks per game and have to try and make Stevens throw a ball or two sooner than he wants. Stevens did throw 10 INTs and the Rams seem to have a habit of making things more difficult than they should in terms of scoring TDs. It’s a tough task for the Herd but they good enough to keep the Rams from going bananas unless they just fail to show up with any intensity.
Marshall offense vs Colorado St defense
The Herd offense is not going to blow you away from a statistical standpoint but they did score 25+ points in 6 of their final 7 games. QB Chase Litton has the mobility of a bank vault but can MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game (2,853, 60%, 23-12) when they establish the run and give him time to throw. #1 WR Tyre Brady will be back for this game and TE Ryan Yurachek has 9 TD receptions. They have a good 1-2 combo at RB (T King, K Davis; 1,300+ combined rushing yards) and can do damage against weak defenses. Hey, guess what ? The Rams defense is one of the worst performing stop units of the entire bowl season. Our big concern is the turnover BUGABOO which could kill Marshall in this game. Litton makes some bonehead mistakes (12 INT) and the team is (-4) in turnover margin. The Rams do not get much PENETRATION and the Herd have been good on 3rd downs (#20 FBS) whilst also keeping Litton clean (also T2 FBS sacks allowed per game).
Motivation / Intangibles
Colorado St – This is a tough read. It has been a disappointing season AND they face a mid-range C-USA team in a bowl game. Then again, they are playing close to home, and they are surely hungry for a bowl victory. HC Bobo is 0-2 in the postseason including the DEBACLE last year when they allowed 60+ points to YOUR Idaho Vandals. Feels like a mixed bag.
Grade – Average. (read them correctly – you win your bet. We are just not sure as we go to press)
Marshall – Also a tough team to gauge. They finished the season in a slump losing four of their final five games BUT, as we noted earlier, they lost their four conference tilts by a combined 19 points. And this just in – HC Doc Holliday is 4-0 SU in bowl games (Herd 10-2 overall). The travel worries us a little bit. Defense is usually more reliable in terms of NOT TANKING than offenses.
Grade – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Amaze your local bartender hottie with this gem – Of the 130 teams in the FBS only TWO have had just ONE QB throw every pass this season. The teams ? Wait for it……Colorado St and Marshall…..Recent bowl success favors the Herd if you believe in that kind of stuff. ….The Rams have not played a game since NOVEMBER 18th when they ripped apart San Jose St.
Summary
The case can be made for both teams. Colorado St can blow this one wide open if they start hot on offense and break the WILL TO LIVE of the Herd defenders. Surely, they cannot crap the bed in another bowl game ? Right ? On the other hand, Marshall has hung tough with some decent competition including a 5-point road loss vs FAU where they outgained the FIGHTING KIFFINS. The perceived value edge also has to go to Marshall as we see the fair line closer to 3.5/4.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Colorado St team total over. This seems like the most likely winning wager if you like the Rams. We find it hard to see them scoring less than 30. The team total is not outrageous. Small potatoes only.