2017 ORANGE BOWL – WISCONSIN vs MIAMI
WISCONSIN -6 MIAMI (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -5
Sagarin ratings – Wisconsin -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 25.5 Miami 19.5
The Game
Here we go !
It seems like it has been 40 years but YOUR Miami Hurricanes are finally back in a big bowl game. Miami finished with a fine 10-2 mark but lost their final two games of the season including a blowout loss in the ACC Championship game (a 444,000 STAR MEGALOCKS PLATINUM LASER LOCK winner) vs Clemson. The program is improving but there is still work to be done. Wisconsin finished with a record of 12-1 and their only loss came in the Big 10 Championship game vs Ohio St (800 STAR MEGALOCKS SUPER EARLY PHONE RELEASE PUSH BUT I STILL HATE YOU MEGALOCKS YOU TOUT SCUM HACK game of the week). They were ONE possession away from making it to 13-0. Can they get up for this one ? Let’s dig in !
The Match-Up
Wisconsin offense vs Miami defense
Hmm. I wonder what is coming, yo ? The Badgers bring their #21 rushing attack to town and Miami is about to get a big dose of star RB J Taylor who rattled off 1,847 (!!) yards and 13 TDs this season for the Badgers. The depth in the RB unit has been hurt by injuries but this is the last game of the year and we expect Taylor to get a healthy workload. QB A Hornibrook is a decent game manager but he needs to cut down on the INTs (15) (!) especially vs a Miami team that is #3 in the NCAA in takeaways (30) and LIVES off creating havoc and getting that nasty turnover chain out in celebration. TE Troy Fumagalli is their most dangerous weapon in the passing game. The WR group lacks a proven star and someone like D Davis or AJ Taylor need to step up on Saturday night. Miami is #1 (!) in the FBS in sacks per game (43 total) and #2 in TFL per game. They also do a good job vs the run. The Badgers need to be patient with the run game and do well on third downs (#3 FBS) so that their formula works (#3 time of possession). If they just do their thing on offense and limit turnovers to one (or zero) they should be able to grind out a 7+ point win. How hard could that be ? Maybe we could ask Notre Dame or Virginia Tech. <places phone calls>
Miami offense vs Wisconsin defense
If you listen to many Miami fans you would think this team is a disaster on offense. Keep in mind that they lost their #1 RB, #1 WR and freakshow #1 TE. They are battling but need another recruiting class or two to develop depth. QB Malik Rosier has had trouble with accuracy (55% completions, 11 INT) but he has also led them to some big wins AND has thrown 25 TD passes whilst rushing for another 5 (427 yards). RB Travis Homer has done a good job (902, 7 TD) and WR B Berrios is an underrated guy that can move the chains and make big plays. We worry about the Hurricanes’ ability to convert on 3rd downs (#124 FBS !) vs the #7 3rd down defense. Miami relied upon big plays on offense and short fields created by turnovers this season. It is going to be tough sledding vs the #1 defense in the FBS (253 yards per game).
Motivation / Intangibles
Wisconsin – Tough call. They rarely lay an egg BUT they were THIS close to the college football playoff. They are probably sick and tired of hearing how slow they are when all they do is win a million games every year.
Grade – Average.
Miami – Playing at home won’t hurt. The air seems to have been evacuated from the balloon. Can they feed off energy and turnovers one more time ? The defense is really good and disruptive so it’s hard to envision a no-show from an emotional standpoint.
Grade – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
It’s rare that you see a team show up with 1,2,1 in terms of total defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense but that is exactly what Wisconsin can brag about…..It’s also rare to see a team show up with 73 combined sacks and takeaways…..That is Miami, yo.
Summary
We have been going back and forth on this one. Wisconsin. Then Miami. Now back to Wisconsin. That is always a good sign to take a pass.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game. Miami TT under 19.5.
Dude, you on this game for small potatoes or what ? NO. NO. NO.