2017 OUTBACK BOWL – MICHIGAN vs SOUTH CAROLINA
MICHIGAN -7.5 SOUTH CAROLINA (42.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -7
Sagarin ratings – Michigan -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 25 South Carolina 17.5
The Game
Rematch time, yo.
South Carolina and Michigan hooked up in this bowl game back in 2012 and it was a highly entertaining football game (33-28 SC win). Both teams are down a notch from those squads but we can still expect a competitive tilt. Michigan had problems and injuries at QB all season and struggled to make an impact in the Big 10 losing all four of their most important games (MSU, OSU, Penn St, Wisconsin). Their only win over a bowl team was a road victory over Purdue. They can get to 9 wins on Monday with a win over a decent SEC squad and build a bit of momentum for 2018. The Gamecocks also come into game with an 8-4 mark and have been “plucky” and scrappy all season. They finished 2nd in the SEC East (!) and can boast wins over three bowl teams (NC State, Missouri, La Tech). Can they get THEIR 9th win ? Let’s dig in.
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs South Carolina defense
Will the time off help Michigan get more accomplished on offense ? QB Brandon Peters is good to go for this one and is certainly an upgrade over O’Korn. It’s hard to know how he will perform vs S Carolina because most of his reps were vs Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland. There is not much going on in the passing game (nobody with more than 307 yards; no player has 30+ receptions) and the Wolverines will look to pound the Gamecocks run D with their rushing attack that can be really good at times. RB K Higdon has a great shot to exceed 1,000 yards (929, 11 TD) on the season in this game and they have some nice depth. If they can keep the chains moving and run the ball effectively it will pay dividends in the 2nd half. The issue ? They are horrible on 3rd downs (#102 FBS), and while SC had not been great defending 3rd downs, they have a smart defensive HC who should be able to game plan effectively vs a limited offense and a QB with no mobility. The Cocks finished up #25 in scoring defense in the FBS. If feels like Michigan may struggle to get to their team total without defensive or special teams scores. <grabs popcorn>
South Carolina offense vs Michigan defense
QB Jake Bentley has been inconsistent this season (16-11 TD to INT) but he did throw for over 2500 yards and led the team to eight regular season wins. The offense has had to deal with key injuries and it feels like they did as well as they could even though it was frustrating at times for fans. The good news is that they have a capable 1-2 punch at RB (AJ Turner, Ty’Son Williams) and the Michigan defense can give up some yards on the ground (180,182,226 rushing yards allowed last three games; gave up 5 rushing TD to Penn St). If they can stay patient with the run and get a big play or two out of WR B Edwards and/or star TE H Hurst they can win this game. Of course, that is easier said than done, as Michigan STILL has the #3 defense in the FBS and are #1 in the Big 10 in sacks per game and TFL per game.
Motivation / Intangibles
Michigan – Nothing stands out. Sure, they want to win, but the season has already been a disappointment.
Grade – Average.
South Carolina – They have to a bit more fired up. This has been a good campaign all things considered. HC Muschamp has this program going in the right direction. And they can play the underdog card.
Grade – Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Michigan finished up #88 in the FBS in penalty yards, #83 in turnover margin and #111 in net punting……Those are the little things that can kill you when playing a fired up team that feasts on mistakes……SC takes very few penalties and are ranked #17 in turnover margin……The PAC 12 has been a DUMPSTER FIRE in this bowl season BUT the Big 10 has been a BURGEONING JABBAWOCKEE (7-0 straight up so far).
Summary
Lean to the dog in this one. If QB Bentley can limit his mistakes (INTs, not throw the ball away when given the chance) there is no reason to think that South Carolina cannot be in this game until the final whistle.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: S Carolina +7.5 for small to medium potatoes.