2017 PEACH BOWL – UCF vs AUBURN
AUBURN -9.5 UCF (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -11
Sagarin ratings – Auburn -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 38 UCF 28.5
The Game
BOOM !
We get one of the best teams in college football (Auburn) battling against a 12-0 UCF team that just MIGHT (?) be one of the best teams in the country. Auburn comes into this match-up of a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship game and a 10-3 record. The Knights finished up a perfect regular season with a mark of 12-0 after defeating Memphis in a dramatic AAC Championship game. Can they make it a 13-0 masterpiece ? If so, they will have to beat one of the best teams out there. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Auburn offense vs UCF defense
Ok. It’s pretty simple. If Auburn just runs their offense and doesn’t barf all over themselves with turnovers it seems likely they get well into the 40s. Auburn had the #25 offense in the FBS and were #22 rushing. The passing attack did not pick up tons of yards BUT they were very efficient (#10 FBS) with QB J Stidham throwing 17 TDs and just 4 INTs at 8.6 yards per attempt. Sure, there is a lot of short stuff, but they can bomb away once the run gets established. WR Ryan Davis grabbed 76 (!) passes and WR Darius Slayton averaged 24 yards per grab. Let’s leave the best until last. RB Kerryon Johnson had eight 100-yard rushing games and is the straw that stirs the drink. He was banged up near the end of the season and still almost led them to an SEC title. He is good to go for this game. Just to give you a frame of reference for how impressive the Auburn offense was – they played 6 (!) games against top 12 (!) defenses. ROLL TIDE, Georgia (2), Clemson, Mississippi St and LSU.
The Knights finished up the regular season with the #93 ranked defense. Their secret sauce was finishing up T5 in the FBS in turnovers forced with 29. They are ranked #81 in yards per play defense and #77 on 3rd downs. They do not get adequate PENETRATION (#92 sacks per game; #79 TFL per game) and should not provide much resistance to Auburn if the Tigers play up to expectations.
UCF offense vs Auburn defense
Ok, Auburn. Let’s see what you can do. UCF led the FBS with an amazing 49 (!!!) points per game and they did it scoring 38 rushing TDs and 36 passing TDs. Whoa. QB McKenzie Milton had a phenomenal year passing for 35 TDs and rushing for another 7. It is crazy to think that eight different players had a reception of 40+ yards. Big plays come by the bushel-full. They do not have the traditional #1 RB but do very well with the running game when they RELEASE THE KILLINS (762, 10 TD). #1 WR Tre’Quan Smith is a solid #1 WR (1,082, 20 yards per catch, 13 TDs). TE Jordan Akins is a nightmare, but to be honest, their are too many weapons to mention. Here is the question: How will these video game stats translate when not playing defenses filled with a bunch of stiffs ? Without their starting LT ? Against Auburn ? Here is list of some of the defenses that UCF dominated and their total defense ranking…..130 FBS teams. East Carolina 130, UConn 127, SMU 122, Memphis 121 (twice), Cincinnati (94), Maryland (86) and the brick wall at FIU (83). The toughest ? USF at “#38”, but let’s be honest, that defense is flat out horrible.
Auburn is by far the sternest test of the season. Auburn has the #13 defense in the FBS and they are sound vs the run and the pass. They are also #3 in the SEC in sacks per game and can get PENETRATION with only four guys. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#18 FBS) and will NEED to be really good in this game. The Tigers should be able to limit long drives and just need to limit the number of big plays.
Motivation / Intangibles
Auburn – This is THE question that defines the handicap. If they are ready to go it’s seems to us that there is a good chance they win by 14+. UCF star Killins provided a bit of bulletin board material suggesting that Auburn would not be able to deal with their speed. Hmm. We worry about HC Malzahn’s record in bowl games (1-3) but are glad to hear that he signed a new contract. Everyone should be focused on preparing for the Peach Bowl.
Grade – Below Average.
UCF – Mixed bag. They are playing an SEC powerhouse and are on a DATE with DESTINY to finish up 13-0. We worry about the HC leaving for Nebraska (even though he is coaching in this game). Can they get up for their 3rd straight big game ? (USF, Memphis….Auburn)
Grade – Good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Auburn played ROLL TIDE and GEORGIA (twice) in their last four games…..UCF is ranked #112 in penalty yards per game (bad)….Auburn is #8.
Summary
This feels like a game Auburn should win quite easily. Their offense has potential to explode and the defense will get enough stops. Of course, if they come out flat, it’s anyone’s guess. We are gonna roll with the team that happened to beat Georgia and ROLL TIDE.
Conclusion
Official play: Auburn -9.5 -109 (sent Dec 27, 6:25 pm EST) (play up to -10)