2017 TAXSLAYER BOWL – LOUISVILLE vs MISSISSIPPI ST
LOUISVILLE -7 MISSISSIPPI ST (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -7
Sagarin ratings – Mississippi St -1 (does not account for starting Miss St QB out)
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 35 Mississippi St 28
The Game
Time for some taxslaying, yo.
Superstar QB Lamar Jackson brings his Louisville Cardinals to town to take on SEC foe Mississippi St at high noon on Saturday. Mississippi St only lost four games this season and three of them were vs ROLL TIDE, Auburn and Georgia. The other was vs bitter rival Ole Miss without their starting QB. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs will have to go without their starting QB again, as well as their OC, DC and HC. Louisville had a decent 8-4 campaign but did not manage any signature wins unless you count a 3-point victory over the struggling Noles as “signature”.
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs Mississippi defense
There is almost no defense on earth that can stop Lamar Jackson and only a rare few that can slow him down. Jackson had another amazing season with almost 3,500 yards passing and 1,443 (!) yards on the ground. If there is any fault with the offense it is that the running game is REALLY reliant on Jackson to do his thing. The RB group is a bit underwhelming. They have a good WR corps and three players have 600+ yards receiving. The key will be converting on 3rd downs (#15 FBS) and hitting one or two big plays in the passing game. Mississippi St is really good defensively and were actually #1 (!) in first downs allowed whilst ranking #11 in 3rd down defense. Mississippi St may not have the same pedigree on defense as the 2016 LSU team that crushed the Cards last year had but they can cause some problems. The best defense may be a good grinding offense. Miss St was #6 in TOP this season, but of course, it remains to be seen how the new QB will fare.
Mississippi St offense vs Louisville defense
True freshman Keytaon Thompson gets the call for this one with starting QB Nick Fitzgerald out for the season. Thompson was 13/27 vs Ole Miss but did rush for 121 yards. They feature a 1,000-yard RB in Aeris Williams who really impressed us this season and he will have to have a big game for the Bulldogs to have a shot. They do not have a player on the team with more than 300 (!) yards receiving and will have to play keep away from Lamar Jackson and company. It’s anyone’s guess if they can achieve that goal. The good news is that the Louisville defense is not a brick wall (#62 total defense) and they can be had vs the run (400 yards allowed last two games).
Motivation / Intangibles
Louisville – Your pal Petrino is an ATS stiff in bowl games and his teams are never an easy read. Laying 7 points vs a gutted team that has “no chance” ?
Grade – Below average.
Mississippi St – They recently lost their HC, OC, DC and QB. Hmmmmmmm.
Grade – Poor. Potential debacle.
MEGA BOWL BITES
This game used to be known as the GATOR BOWL and was one of our favorites and a big deal growing up…..Guess we be getting old, yo.
Summary
It’s hard to make a case for a team that has dealt with so much upheaval over the past number of weeks. It’s always hard to trust Louisville. You have to think they find a way to cover, right ?
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game ? Louisville -6.5/-7.
Dude, you on this bad boy for small potatoes ? No.