Hawaii at Massachusetts – College Football Predictions
The Game
Sometimes you cannot have enough of a good thing, yo.
Hawaii and Massachusetts had a STEEL CAGE MATCH to end the 2016 campaign and the Rainbow Warriors pulled out a 46-40 win. Hawaii is looking to make another trip to a bowl game and maybe be a darkhorse in the Mountain West chase. Massachusetts looks to be improved and may just have the talent to pull an upset or two in 2017. Let’s roll !
The Details
HAWAII Pk MASSACHUSETTS (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Massachusetts -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Hawaii 30.5 Massachusetts 30.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Hawaii 33 Massachusetts 31
The Match-Up
Hawaii offense vs Massachusetts defense
The Rainbow Warriors possess a balanced attack that is going to be hard for the Minutemen to defend. Last season they put up 479 yards of total offense and have 8 starters returning this season. QB Dru Brown is an efficient passer and has mobility. RB Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for 1,000 yards in 2016. The WR group is solid even without Karcus Kemp. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters. It feels like Hawaii should get to the 30 point mark.
We say “should” because this year’s version of the Minutemen just might have a sneaky good defense. At least by their historical standards. 9 starters return on defense and there are a lot of seniors in that lineup. Having said that, they did allow 52,51,46 (!) in their final three games last season, so maybe we are over-thinking things just a bit. In any event it seems safe to project Hawaii right around 30 points and they will have more trouble scoring than they did in the 2016 match-up.
Massachusetts offense vs Hawaii defense
Keep this in mind, sports fans. Last season QB Andrew Ford lit up Hawaii for 342 yards passing and RB Marquis Young rushed for over 100 yards. Both men are back, and in fact, the offense looks very similar to the group that almost SHOCKED the WORLD in Hawaii last year. The deadly weapon is TE Adam Breneman who is one of the best receiving TEs in college football. The WR group is also dangerous. Our primary concern is an offensive line that only returns a pair of starters.
It’s hard to imagine Hawaii having a lot more success stopping Massachusetts than they did last season. They do have some experience in the front seven and will be able to get some PENETRATION (last yr bagged four sacks) but the secondary is a major worry. We also see the potential for the Minutemen to get to 30 points.
MEGA-MAZING TIDBITS
The Minutemen have only five true home games this season and this is one of them…..Massachusetts has bagged winning seasons ATS in two of the past three years…..Hawaii was 3-3 on the road last season after going 1-11 (!) in the 2014-2015 time period.
Summary
This is a game that both teams must feel they need to get to bowl eligibility, and in particular, the Minutemen must REALLY feel pressure to bag one early. Their schedule is a lot nastier than that of Hawaii. Should be a fun one to watch. Feels like a toss-up and a high-scoring affair. Sadly, that is EXACTLY what Vegas and every other person on the planet is probably thinking as well.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Lean: Massachusetts on the ML if higher than +100. We will keep an eye on the spread and see if it oozes up to +3. Then we many reconsider adding them to our card. We project 62/63 as the total so not enough value to pounce.