New Mexico St at Arizona St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Time to get real. Arizona St has had back-to-back losing seasons under HC Todd Graham and the vultures will indeed be circling if they stumble again in 2017. Their schedule is difficult and they cannot afford to throw away a seemingly “free” win vs the Aggies. The problem ? New Mexico St just might have the MINERALS to SHOCK the WORLD more than once this season. They look much improved on paper.
The Details
ARIZONA ST 23.5 NEW MEXICO ST (70.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arizona St -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arizona St 47 New Mexico St 23.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Arizona St 42 New Mexico St 27
The Match-Up
Arizona St offense vs New Mexico St defense
Well. Pro Tip. Vegas expects the Sun Devils to get into the high-40s in this one so expect some points from Arizona St. A healthy Manny Wilkins at QB and a loaded running game is a great way to get the proceedings underway. The RB 1-2 punch of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage will be able to impose their will on the New Mexico St defense. The passing game should work well even without the presence of last season’s #1 WR Tim White.
The Aggies’ defense is going to be much improved this year but they certainly have a stern test in week one. They have 9 returning starters and we have a lot of respect for DC Frank Spaziani, but sadly, the fact remains they allowed 39 points per game last season whilst bagging a paltry 12 sacks. They have INFUSED a lot of new faces into the mix so it will be interesting to see how things play out. Overall we feel that the team total of 47 or so for Arizona St is a bit high.
New Mexico St offense vs Arizona St defense
Shhhhhhhh. New Mexico St has one of the best RBs in college football in Larry Rose. He missed some time with injuries in 2016 and it should be full steam ahead in this one. Senior QB Tyler Rogers should be ready to deliver his best season yet with a lot of returning starters and experience in the WR group. The only question is if the Aggies have a legit #1 option. Nobody returning had more than 400 yards receiving in 2016. The offensive line returns three starters and has good size.
If you want to know how bad the Arizona St defense was last season – look no further than the HIPPO EXHIBIT dung piles at your local zoo. 40 points per game and 521 yards allowed per contest. New DC Phil Bennett has a lot of work to do. They do return some legit playmakers in the front 7 but their secondary was lit up BIG TIME last season. If they can get back to the PENETRATION levels more typical of Arizona St football they will be a lot more effective.
MEGA-MAZING STUFF
Arizona St has a tough game with San Diego St next week while the Aggies have a NEW MEXICO SHOWDOWN with the Lobos next week….New Mexico St has not made a bowl game since the classic 1960 Sun Bowl…..Arizona St is 8-1 L9 ATS as home chalk….New Mexico St road games have gone over the total at a rate of 21-5-1 L27 (!)……This is the last year in the Sun Belt for the Aggies so you know they would love to go out in style.
Summary
You have to think New Mexico St has a shot to stay within the number. The biggest risk we see is that Arizona St could easily rise to the level of recent seasons and win by 30+. Not likely but they are capable of scoring a ton of points given their level of talent. And their defense has a license to improve. That is the leap of faith Arizona St backers will have to take. It seems like the most logical approach is to go with the value and back New Mexico St.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Lean: Strong lean to New Mexico St. Stay tuned.