Ohio St at Indiana – College Football Predictions
The Game
Whoa, Nellie !
This is a sneaky-good match-up for week one. Ohio St has National Title aspirations and the Hoosiers are a program on the upswing. At least in our eyes. The Hoosiers come into this game as almost three-TD home underdogs and will look to SHOCK the WORLD on Thursday night. Do they have a shot ? Let’s dig in, yo.
The Details
OHIO ST 20.5 INDIANA (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 38.5 Indiana 18
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 31 Indiana 17
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Indiana defense
Here we go. Heisman contender QB JT Barrett and RB Mike Weber (another Heisman hopeful ?) are one of the most potent running combos in college football. Either of these dudes can rip your defense to shreds and hit a big play at any time. The offensive line is BEASTLY on paper. Our primary concern is the passing game and the ability of Ohio St to be balanced on offense. They will miss the reliability of Curtis Samuel (also as a runner) and do not return anyone who had more than 300 yards receiving last season. If Indiana can just slow down the Buckeyes’ on 1st and 2nd down the game could get interesting.
We are high on the Hoosiers’ defense this season as they return 9 starters and allowed just 20,24 and 26 points in their final three games of 2016. Indiana has bagged 30+ sacks in consecutive seasons and have some good players at all three levels of the defense. It seems to us that Ohio St will not be able to just roll their helmets out there and move the ball at will.
Indiana offense vs Ohio St defense
Things look a bit dicey for the Hoosiers. We do like QB Richard Lagow despite his mediocre 19-17 TD to INT ratio from a season ago. WR Nick Westbrook is a legit #1 WR. We worry deeply about their ability to get a run game going against the Ohio St front 7. 1,000 yard RB Devine Redding is gone and someone is going to need to step up in a hurry. The Buckeyes have allowed just 15 points per game in each of the past two seasons and should be just as tough to score on in 2017. We have a hard time seeing Indiana grinding out too many long drives.
MEGA-MAZING TIDBITS
So the last five years. What has happened ? FIVE games. FIVE Indiana covers. For MEGALOCKS MATH CLUB members that is 5-0 and 100%…….Indiana will be geeked up….Forget CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY….The last five seasons have shown us that the Hoosiers are more than capable of sticking around no matter where the game is played…..Urban Meyer is 9-9 ATS as a road favorite at Ohio St……Indiana last beat Ohio St in 1988.
Summary
We think there is value with the Hoosiers. The question becomes – is there enough value to make a play ? We are on the fence right now. If the number hits 21 or 21.5 we may have to take at least a small taste. Stay tuned. We also like the under but note that it has been STEAMED up to 56.5. Maybe we are just missing something. Both defenses look pretty good to us.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. May take another dive into it.
Lean: Indiana at 21 or better for small potatoes. Under 56 or better for small potatoes.