Stanford vs Rice – College Football Predictions – SYDNEY CUP
The Game
Crikey ! Yes, this is the one time of year when MEGALOCKS staff get to brag about how awesome AUSTRALIA is without actually being a resident. We traveled for seven weeks in that wonderful country just over five years ago and cannot wait to go back. WHO CARES !? HAA. We get it. But since we own this medium you have to listen to us. Just kidding. Sort of. (If anyone in Sydney or elsewhere wants to hook us up with a good future accommodation idea let us know)
On to college football.
This is the 2nd Sydney Cup and follows a 51-31 Cal Golden Bears win over Hawaii in 2016. On paper this game appears to be more of a SNOT BUBBLER with a lot less scoring. Stanford wants to get off to a good start and get the kinks ironed out before their YUUUUGE game with USC on September 9th. Rice is coming off back-to-back losing seasons but seems to have enough experience this year to make a run at a bowl game. Let’s go !!
The Details
STANFORD 31 RICE (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford -31
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Stanford 41 Rice 10
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Stanford 38 Rice 7
The Match-Up
Stanford offense vs Rice defense
Nine yards and a cloud of dust. Expect to see a lot of the Stanford run game giving the Rice defense repeated BODY BLOWS with RB Bryce Love and their excellent offensive line. Last season the Cardinal steamrolled Rice to the tune of 373 yards on the ground at an astounding 8.7 (!) yards per carry. We know that Stanford no longer boasts star RB Christian McCaffrey but the ground attack should still work very well in this game. The one thing to note is that the Rice front 7 should provide more resistance this time around. They have size and experience on the DL and return leading tackler LB Emmanuel Ellerbee (118).
Who will get the nod at QB ? As we go to press it is still uncertain if Keller Chryst will be able to go as he is still recovering from an ACL tear suffered in their final game last season. MEGALOCKS STANFORD REALLY SMART INSIDERS note that QB KJ Costello has looked pretty good in practice. The Rice pass defense was brutal last season, and overall, they allowed 7.4 yards per play (DEAD last FBS). It seems to us that Stanford should be able to run effectively and hit some big plays in the passing game regardless of the inexperience (if KJ starts) at QB. Stanford can be “boring” but they are also capable of “ripping you to shreds” if you allow them to have success MATRICULATING in the passing game.
Rice offense vs Stanford defense
Oh boy. It’s never an optimal scenario to have a young QB go up against the Stanford defense, but yet, here we are. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Glaesmann will start this one for the Owls and apparently has dual-threat ability. His mobility will be a huge bonus as a supplement to a Rice ground attack that gets to run behind a very experienced offensive line. The Owls did not have a single player record more than 500 yards rushing OR receiving in 2016 but should be more productive in 2017. It will just be tough sledding vs Stanford.
Rice will have to be patient running the ball and hope Glaesmann can convert some first downs with his legs. We have our doubts about the ability of Rice to get much done in the passing game. The Stanford D has been down just a notch the past two years allowing 20.4 and 22.6 points per contest and 140 yards rushing per game. The reality is, however, that they return 8 starters on defense and are going to be a stiff challenge for Rice.
MEGA MORSELS
These two teams ended the 2016 season with a game at Stanford in which the Cardinal won but did not cover (41-17) the 35 point spread…..As noted earlier Stanford’s next game is the big date with USC on September 9th.
CONGRATS AUSTRALIA FAN CLUB MEMBERS…..Here are some popular Australian phrases (maybe not) and how to interpret them.
“Ripper”…..Really great. (“Those MEGALOCKS college football write-ups are RIPPER !”)
“By Jingoes !”…..Exclamation of surprise. (“By Jingoes ! How did we lose that game with one second left to go. That was definitely NOT ripper.”
“Barbie”.….Barbeque. (“Mate. Throw some prawns on the barbie ! The MACtion is about to start.”)
“Sheila”…Australian female. Most likely good looking. (“By Jingoes ! These SEC stadiums are full of smoking hot Sheilas. Ripper !!”)
Summary
Stanford is obviously a mortal lock to win the game. The question becomes, can Rice stay within the number ? This game has a similar feeling to last year’s Sydney Cup in which the game landed very close to the closing number (51-31 Cal; Closing line was right around Cal -20). It seems to us that you may be asking for trouble banking on Stanford to win by more than 31 points in the first game of the season. Playing in Australia. With USC on deck. Rice is not an offensive juggernaut but they have proven to be scrappy in years’ past and just annoying enough to cover big spreads like this one. A lot has to go right to cover 31 points unless you are ROLL TIDE or something close to that level.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Lean: Owls at +31 or higher for small potatoes only. IF you must make a bet. Going to keep the research going and will advise if we recommend an official play. We think that a Rice team total over play might be another way to go if it is no higher than 10. One TD and a FG seems pretty safe in a game where the defensive intensity will not be 100% for 60 minutes.