ULM at Memphis – College Football Predictions
The Game
Ok kids. Memphis appears to be a big-time player in the AAC West this season and they get to start off the campaign with a theoretical tune-up against the ULM Warhawks. You may forgive the Tigers is they have part of one eyeball focused on their big game with UCF next week. ULM struggled to a 4-8 mark under first-year HC Matt Viator last season but they are a lot more experienced this season and will not be a punching bag on MOST occasions. The problem ? Memphis is pretty good. This might be one of those weeks ? Let’s examine.
The Details
MEMPHIS 27 ULM (67)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Memphis 23
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Memphis 47 ULM 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Memphis 42 ULM 25
The Match-Up
Memphis offense vs ULM defense
Memphis booked 39 points per game on offense in 2016 and our AAC INSIDER COMPUTER MODELS project an even better season in 2017. ULM is going to have their hands full against a loaded offense that features an excellent QB (Riley Ferguson – 3,700, 32 TD in 2016), a deep and talented RB corps and a STAR WR in Anthony Miller (95-1,434, 14 TD ! in 2016). The offensive line was decent last season but did allow 35 sacks. Four starters return on the line and we should see some improvement. Facing the Warhawks should enable the Tigers to get things rolling.
ULM was ranked 2nd last in the Sun Belt last season in total defense allowing 480 yards per contest. This year they return 8 starters to the mix but are in tough against Memphis. Last season the Warhawks allowed 260 (!) rushing yards per game and are almost certainly going to struggle in that regard in this one. That will probably allow the Tigers to hit some big ones in the passing game. Overall we think Memphis should score well into the 40s.
ULM offense vs Memphis defense
There is definitely some hope for ULM. The Warhawks bring back their top 8 (!) rushers from last season and a healthy QB in Garrett Smith (assuming he gets the start) who’s running ability must be accounted for by the defense. The Tigers were ranked 10th the AAC last season allowing over 200 yards rushing per game at 5 yards a pop. We feel that ULM will have some success and may be able to hit a few big plays in the passing game. Their top-2 receivers both averaged 17+ yards per catch in 2016. The OL returns three starters and has a couple of fine players including G Frank Sutton. Memphis also struggled getting PENETRATION last season. This feels like a game where the underdog has more success than anticipated.
MEGA-MAZING STUFF
As bad as the Warhawks were last season they did manage to go 4-3 ATS as a road dog…..ULM is a combined (-27) in turnover margin the last two season combined……The Warhawks go to Florida St next….how is that for a 1-2 scheduling punch ?……Memphis will be without outstanding PK Jake Elliott….Keep an eye on how the new kid does with FGs.
Summary
We note some perceived value in the line in favor of ULM. The problem is “fading” a team (Memphis) that we are really high on this season, and in particular, the potential that they have on offense. It could be that this is a beatdown with the Warhawks being simply outclassed. 27 points provides quite a bit of wiggle room tho. Hmmmm.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Lean: Lean to ULM at +27 or better.