Iowa St at West Virginia – College Football Predictions
The Game
Who would have thunk it ?
The wacky and kooky Iowa St Cyclones are playing rock solid football right now and sit in a four-way tie at the top of the Big 12 standings. The only blemishes so far are a 10-point loss to Texas and an OT loss to Iowa. Pretty impressive. The Mountaineers are almost certainly on the outside looking in based on their losses to Oklahoma St and TCU. Can they get fired up to play Iowa St in a season that seems to be slipping away ? Let’s find out !
The Details
West Virginia -2.5 Iowa St (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – West Virginia -3
Sagarin Ratings – Iowa St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: West Virginia 32 Iowa St 29.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Iowa St 33 West Virginia 31
The Match-Up
West Virginia offense vs Iowa St defense
BOMBS AWAY. The running game has not been working as hoped and it will be up to star QB Will Grier to keep firing away (28 TD passes) at his solid group of WR targets. The good news is that their top-4 are putting up some nice numbers, and in particular, one David Sills who has a seemingly impossible 15 (!) TD receptions in 2017. The not so good news ? Outside of the top-4 WR there is NOBODY else with double digit receptions. It has been boom or bust with the deep shots. Iowa St has been playing great defense are really confident right now. In the past three games they have only allowed 0,13 and 7 points. They are scrappy and well coached and create turnovers. If they can limit the extra-long passing plays to just a couple they should be in great shape to win this game.
Iowa St offense vs West Virginia defense
Yup. The story keeps developing. OUT OF NOWHERE QB Kyle Kempt is playing great football and has guided the team to consecutive wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech and TCU whilst completing 66% of his passes (9-2 TD to INT). They boast a pair of talented SPECIMENS at WR in Allen Lazard and Hakeem Butler who have proven to be a match-up nightmare for opposing secondaries. RB David Montgomery is STILL a member of the 2017 ALL-MEGALOCKS TEAM with his intense running style and ability to catch balls out of the backfield (25). The offense is very balanced right now and should be able to probe the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Mountaineers’ defense and move the ball through the air. West Virginia has allowed 34,31,35,36,50 points in their past five games.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
West Virginia has only lost three games in Morgantown in the past two and a half seasons so it will be interesting to see if they can rustle up some hometown magic……The Sagarin ratings have Iowa St ranked higher than we do (#19 vs #26) and West Virginia lower (#38 vs #28 for us). It could be we are missing the boat on these teams.
Summary
Our first instinct was to go with the Mountaineers, but after digging deep into the numbers, we just cannot back the struggling team with the MUCH worse defense while also laying points. Iowa St’s bubble may burst at some point but they are definitely a better team right now. Win the turnover battle and this puppy is over. Probably.
Conclusion
Tough call. We are gonna keep the wallet shut for this one. Were hopeful to have a play. Argh. Gun to the head suggestion is a small taste of the under.