LSU at Alabama – College Football Predictions
The Game
ROLL TIDE.
Alabama heads down the home stretch and faces LSU on Saturday night. This is one of our favorite games of the year, and even though the gap between these two teams is pretty extreme, we are still pumped to catch this match-up and watch it go down. ROLL TIDE is 8-0 and on another DATE with DESTINY for post-season glory. LSU is a quiet 6-2, but as we have alerted peeps on numerous occasions, a home loss to Troy does not make them trash. They are still LSU and this is STILL a big time rivalry. Let’s gooooooooooo !
The Details
Alabama -21 LSU (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -21
Sagarin Ratings – Alabama -24
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 34.75 LSU 13.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 31 LSU 10
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs LSU defense
Here we go. Strap it on. ROLL TIDE brings a punishing ground attack into this game (#7 FBS) and are going to be relentless on Saturday night. RB Damien Harris is on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign and QB Jalen Hurts is a very dangerous runner (572, 6 TD). They also have ridiculous depth. LSU is ranked #9 (!) in the SEC in yards per carry allowed (4.35) and have demonstrated a SOFT UNDERBELLY this season. They have to figure out a way to slow down the ROLL TIDE run game or at least do a really good job on 3rd downs. Force an extra punt or two. Recover a fumble. Yield a couple of field goals instead of touchdowns. They have to play their best game of the season on defense to stay in this game past halftime. ROLL TIDE only has one player with more than a dozen receptions (!) so if LSU can limit big plays from Calvin Ridley (not easy) it may be another way to stay in the game.
LSU offense vs Alabama defense
Uh, oh. LSU is going up against the BRICK WALL. ROLL TIDE has the #1 ranked defense in the FBS and the #1 rush defense (66 yards per game; 2.3 yds per carry; 2 TDs allowed). They also excel on 3rd downs and do not give up much through the air. The good news ? RB Derrius Guice is coming off a yuuuuuge game in which he lit up Ole Miss for 276 (!) yards and appears to be healthy again. ROLL TIDE has a great run defense but there is no reason to think that Guice cannot pop a big run or two. QB Danny Etling is not spectacular but gets a bit of a bad rap. He is completing 60% of his passes and has only thrown 1 INT all season. WR DJ Chark is a game breaking target. LSU has to find a way to convert third downs and hit at least 2-3 big plays on offense.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings…..The road team is 15-6-1 ATS in the past 22 match-ups.
Summary
It’s like ROLL TIDE vs ROLL TIDE JR. It’s a bad match-up for LSU. It is going to be near impossible to get consistency on offense beating their head against the wall. And good luck trying to stop that Alabama ground attack. Feels like a comfortable win.
Conclusion
Lean to ROLL TIDE -21. Also lean to the first half under. May come back to this game but right now it is just a lean for small potatoes.